Dollar Rally Looks at ISM Services for Fresh Catalyst, Canadian Awaits BoC Hold

Action Insight Daily Report 9-6-23

Dollar Rally Looks at ISM Services for Fresh Catalyst, Canadian Awaits BoC Hold

Forex markets have found a moment of stability in today's Asian trading session, with Dollar taking a breather as it looks for fresh catalysts to continue this week's rally. All eyes are now on the upcoming ISM Services data, which could prove pivotal for Dollar's trajectory.

Services sector has emerged as the main engine of growth for US economy this year, overshadowing the manufacturing sector that has slipped into contraction. Whether we're discussing jobs growth, inflation, or consumer spending, the services sector remains the cornerstone of economic resilience. A strong showing in ISM Services data could extend Dollar's rally, underpinning the narrative of a resilient US economy amid global uncertainties.

Conversely, a surprising downturn in services could put the brakes on the Dollar, aligning it more closely with slowing economic trends observed in Eurozone and UK.

As of now, Dollar reigns as this week's strongest performer, followed by the Sterling and Swiss Franc. On the flip side, Australian Dollar has emerged as the weakest, with New Zealand Dollar not far behind. Yen's decline has decelerated after Japan's verbal intervention but still ranks as the third weakest performer this week. Meanwhile, Euro and Canadian Dollar are trading mixed, with traders keenly watching today's BoC rate decision where a hold on interest rates is widely expected.

Technically speaking, both Gold and Silver have experienced significant declines this week, largely due to Dollar's strength. Gold appears to have completed its rebound at 1952.82 from 1844.83. Corrective pattern from 2062.95 is likely extending with another falling leg towards 1884.83 support again in the near term.

Silver's scenario echoes Gold's, having completed its rebound at 25.00 from 22.21. Further fall towards 22.21 seems imminent. Both Gold and Silver are likely to remain under pressure as long as their respective resistance levels at 1952.82 and 25.00 hold.

Overnight, DOW dropped -0.56%. S&P 500 dropped -0.42%. NASDAQ dropped -0.08%. 10-year yield rose 0.091 to 4.376. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.41%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.78%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.32%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.21%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0012 at 0.659.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.82; (P) 147.31; (R1) 148.22; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rally is part of the whole rise from 127.20, and should target a test on 151.93 high. On the downside, below 146.40 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 144.43 support holds, in case of retreat.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
01:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q2 0.40% 0.40% 0.20%
06:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders M/M Jul -4.30% 7.00%
08:30 GBP Construction PMI Aug 49.8 51.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jul -0.20% -0.30%
12:30 CAD Labor Productivity Q/Q Q2 -0.10% -0.60%
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Jul -3.5B -3.7B
12:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) Jul -67.9B -65.5B
12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance Jul $-91.2B
13:45 USD Services PMI Aug F 51 51
14:00 USD ISM Services PMI Aug 52.6 52.7
14:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 5.00% 5.00%
18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book