Markets Brace for NFP Impact as Yen Rally Gains Momentum
Action Insight Daily Report 9-6-24 |
Markets Brace for NFP Impact as Yen Rally Gains Momentum |
The financial markets are in a state of heightened anticipation as the much-awaited US non-farm payroll report is set to release today. This key data set will be critical in assessing whether the US economy is veering towards a recession, following the jump in the unemployment rate in July. For Fed, the NFP data will play a significant role in determining the size of the upcoming rate cut as the start of its policy easing cycle, which is expected at the FOMC meeting later this month. However, market reactions could be complex and volatile, as shifting dynamics between stocks, bond yields, and currencies may generate counteracting movements. Dollar saw broad weakness overnight, but the selloff was tempered by ISM services PMI report, which indicated that the services sector remains in modest growth territory. As of now, Dollar and British Pound are positioned in the middle of the week's performance chart. On the other hand, Japanese Yen is staying as the strongest performer, supported by declining US and European benchmark yields. Yen also extended its rally during today's Asian trading session. Close behind are Swiss Franc and Euro. Meanwhile, Australian Dollar sits at the bottom of the performance ladder, followed by New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar, signaling a cautious and risk-averse market atmosphere.... |
EUR/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1048; (P) 1.1071; (R1) 1.1107; More.... EUR/USD's break of 1.1104 minor resistance suggests that pullback from 1.1200 has completed at 1.1025 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.1200 first. Firm break there will resume larger rally and target 61.8% projection of 1.0776 to 1.1200 from 1.1025 at 1.1287. However, break of 1.1025 support will resume the fall from 1.1200 instead. | |
GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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23:30 | JPY | Overall Household Spending Y/Y Jul | 0.10% | 1.20% | -1.40% | 05:00 | JPY | Leading Economic Index Jul P | 109.5 | 109.4 | 109 | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production sM/M Jul | -0.20% | 1.40% | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Jul | 21.2B | 20.4B | 06:45 | EUR | France Trade Balance (EUR) Jul | -5.7B | -6.1B | 06:45 | EUR | France Industrial Output M/M Jul | -0.20% | 0.80% | 07:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Aug | 704B | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 | 0.30% | 0.30% | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls Aug | 163K | 114K | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate Aug | 4.20% | 4.30% | 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings M/M Aug | 0.30% | 0.20% | 12:30 | CAD | Net Change in Employment Aug | 25.0K | -2.8K | 12:30 | CAD | Unemployment Rate Aug | 6.50% | 6.40% | 14:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI Aug | 55.3 | 57.6 |
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