Sterling Firm in Tight Range as Focus Turns to PM May's No-Confidence Vote
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-16-19

Sterling Firm in Tight Range as Focus Turns to PM May's No-Confidence Vote

The forex markets are rather quiet today. Sterling, US Dollar and Canadian Dollar are the stronger ones The Pound is supported by increasing chance of a delay in Brexit, or no Brexit at all. Canadian Dollar is lifted as WTI crude oil rebound and is back at 51.8. Meanwhile, the greenback follows long treasury yields higher, ignoring the record government shut down. Euro is staying soft on slowdown worries. But Australian and New Zealand Dollar are even weaker.

Technically, we'd maintain that EUR/USD's corrective rise from 1.1215 is possibly completed earlier than expected at 1.1569. Further decline is mildly in favor for 1.1307 next. USD/CHF's breach of near term channel resistance is also a bullish development. Focus will now be on 0.9965 resistance. Yen crosses are bounded in tight range for now, awaiting breakout. While Sterling is firm, there is no committed buying yet.

In other markets, FTSE is currently down -0.48%, DAX is up 0.08%, CAC is up 0.15%. German 10-year yield is up 0.015 at 0.224. Earlier today, Nikkei dropped -0.55%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.27%. China Shanghai SSE ended flat. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.52%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0078 to 0.007.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9820; (P) 0.9857; (R1) 0.9914; More....

USD/CHF rebounds to as high as 0.9903 so far today. Breach of the ner term falling channel resistance argues that correction from 1.0128 might have completed earlier than expected at 0.9716. Intraday bias is now cautiously on the upside for 0.9963 resistance first. Decisive break there would add more credence to this bullish case and target retest of 1.0128. However, break of 0.9800 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Corrective fall from 1.0128 would extend through 0.9716 to 0.9541 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0128 at 0.9546) instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Nov 0.00% 3.10% 7.60%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Dec 1.50% 1.80% 2.30%
04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Nov -0.30% -0.50% 1.90% 2.20%
07:00 EUR German CPI M/M Dec F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
07:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Dec F 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
09:30 GBP CPI M/M Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
09:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Dec 2.10% 2.20% 2.30%
09:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Dec 1.90% 1.80% 1.80%
09:30 GBP RPI M/M Dec 0.40% 0.50% 0.00%
09:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Dec 2.70% 2.80% 3.20%
09:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Dec -1.00% -3.00% -2.30% -2.60%
09:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Dec 3.70% 4.60% 5.60% 5.30%
09:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Dec -0.30% 0.10% 0.20%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Dec 2.50% 2.90% 3.10% 3.00%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Dec 0.20% 0.10% 0.10%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Dec 2.50% 2.40% 2.40%
09:30 GBP House Price Index Y/Y Nov 2.80% 3.00% 2.70%
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Dec -1.00% -1.30% -1.60% -1.90%
15:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 57 56
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.4M -1.7M
19:00 USD Federal Reserve Beige Book
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