Cautious Trade Dominates as Dollar Holds Steady, Yen Leads, Gold Jumps

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-16-25

Cautious Trade Dominates as Dollar Holds Steady, Yen Leads, Gold Jumps

Activity in the forex markets has turned relatively subdued today, with no clear trend emerging as traders shift into a cautious stance. With no top-tier economic data scheduled for the rest of the week, attention is turning to the impending inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump next Monday. The spotlight is squarely on his anticipated tariff policies, which could have profound implications for global trade and economic stability.

Yen holds its position as the strongest currency of the day, buoyed by increasing speculation of a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan at its meeting next week. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s consistent messaging has reinforced market expectations, with traders pricing in a higher likelihood of policy tightening.

Swiss Franc ranks second best, benefiting from decline in European benchmark yields. Dollar is the third-best performer, continuing to consolidate against its peers. The greenback's movements were unaffected by slightly worse-than-expected US jobless claims and retail sales data.

On the downside, New Zealand Dollar has overtaken Sterling as the weakest currency of the day. Pound remains under pressure following disappointing GDP data but has not faced aggressive selling. Meanwhile, Australian Dollar is the third weakest, while Euro and Canadian Dollar trade in mixed fashion......

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0248; (P) 1.0302; (R1) 1.0344; More...

EUR/USD is still engaged in consolidations above 1.0176 and intraday bias stays neutral. With 1.0435 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume the fall from 1.1213 and target 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0330 from 1.0629 at 1.0083. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.0435 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY PPI Y/Y Dec 3.80% 3.80% 3.70% 3.80%
00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Jan 4.00% 4.20%
00:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Dec 28% 28% 25%
00:30 AUD Employment Change Dec 56.3K 15.0K 35.6K 28.2K
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Dec 4.00% 4.00% 3.90%
07:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Dec F 0.50% 0.40% 0.40%
07:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Dec F 2.60% 2.60% 2.60%
07:00 GBP GDP M/M Nov 0.10% 0.20% -0.10%
07:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Nov -0.40% 0.10% -0.60%
07:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Nov -1.80% -1.00% -0.70%
07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Nov -0.30% 0.20% -0.60%
07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Nov -1.20% -0.30% 0.00%
07:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Nov -19.3B -18.0B -19.0B -19.3B
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Nov 12.9B 7.2B 6.1B 7.0B
12:30 EUR ECB Meeting Accounts
13:15 CAD Housing Starts Y/Y Dec 231K 250K 262K 267K
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 10) 217K 210K 201K 203K
13:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Dec 0.40% 0.50% 0.70% 0.80%
13:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Dec 0.40% 0.50% 0.20%
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Dec 0.10% -0.10% 0.10%
13:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Jan 44.3 -8.5 -16.4
15:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 47 46
15:00 USD Business Inventories Nov 0.10% 0.10%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -260B -40B