Unexpected UK CPI Boosts Sterling, Risk Aversion Continues
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-17-24 |
Unexpected UK CPI Boosts Sterling, Risk Aversion Continues |
Prevailing mood of risk aversion was evident in Asian session today. Hong Kong stocks led the region lower, reflecting investors' dissatisfaction with the latest batch of Chinese economic data. While China's Q4 GDP growth wasn't far off from analysts' expectations, it still fell short for some, contributing to the market's cautious stance. Additionally, concerns were heightened by the weak retail sales growth and China's continuing population shrinkage, underscoring deeper economic challenges. Japan's Nikkei index stood out as the only exception, remaining relatively stable. In the currency markets, Dollar is standing out as the best performer for the week so far. The prevailing risk-off sentiment is providing sustained boost to the greenback. Concurrently, reports have surfaced, mentioning an "extreme scenario" where no major central bank might cut interest rates this year. This perspective, highlighted by a Bank of America FX strategist, brings into question the potential scenario where central banks remain on hold due to persistent inflation and ongoing robust economic growth. That's a stark contrast to current market pricing that suggests six Fed cuts this year, which is also "unrealistic" at the other end... |
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9351; (P) 0.9370; (R1) 0.9389; More... EUR/CHF's break of 0.9402 support turned resistance suggests that down trend from 1.0095 has completed at 0.9252 already. Rebound from there is tentatively seen as a corrective move first. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.9451). Sustained break there will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9574. On the downside, though, break of 0.9349 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9252 low instead. | |
GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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02:00 | CNY | GDP Y/Y Q4 | 5.20% | 5.20% | 4.90% | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y Dec | 6.80% | 6.80% | 6.60% | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y Dec | 7.40% | 8.10% | 10.10% | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Dec | 3.00% | 2.90% | 2.90% | 07:00 | GBP | CPI M/M Dec | 0.40% | 0.20% | -0.20% | 07:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y Dec | 4.00% | 3.80% | 3.90% | 07:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y Dec | 5.10% | 4.90% | 5.10% | 07:00 | GBP | RPI M/M Dec | 0.50% | 0.40% | -0.10% | 07:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y Dec | 5.20% | 5.10% | 5.30% | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Input M/M Dec | -1.20% | -0.70% | -0.30% | -0.40% | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Input Y/Y Dec | -2.80% | -1.90% | -2.60% | -2.70% | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Output M/M Dec | -0.60% | -0.20% | -0.10% | 0.00% | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Output Y/Y Dec | 0.10% | 0.40% | -0.20% | -0.10% | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output M/M Dec | 0.00% | 0.00% | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output Y/Y Dec | 0.10% | 0.20% | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Dec F | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.90% | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Dec F | 3.40% | 3.40% | 3.40% | 13:30 | CAD | Industrial Product Price M/M Dec | -1.50% | -0.70% | -0.40% | 13:30 | CAD | Raw Material Price Index Dec | -4.90% | -2.10% | -4.20% | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Dec | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.30% | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Dec | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 13:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M Dec | 0.00% | -0.50% | -0.40% | 14:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Dec | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 14:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Dec | 78.60% | 78.70% | 78.80% | 78.60% | 15:00 | USD | Business Inventories Nov | -0.10% | -0.10% | 15:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Index Jan | 39 | 37 | 19:00 | USD | Fed's Beige Book |
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