Euro Recovers as ECB Sees Less Pronounced Downside Risk, Dollar Softens after Jobless Claims
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-21-21

Euro Recovers as ECB Sees Less Pronounced Downside Risk, Dollar Softens after Jobless Claims

Euro recovers mildly in early US session, after ECB said downside risks to the economic outlook are less pronounced. Though, it remains one of the worst performing for the week, together with Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc. The greenback is clearly still under pressure for now, after worst than expected jobless claims data. Canadian Dollar is now leading other commodity currencies and Sterling higher, after BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said that there's no need for more stimulus based on the base case.

Technically, EUR/USD's break of 1.2157 minor resistance reaffirms the view that it has bottomed out for near term at 1.2052. Focus will be on 126.19 minor resistance in EUR/JPY and 1.0787 minor resistance in EUR/CHF to confirm. Though, risks for Euro remains on the downside against Sterling and commodity currencies.

In Europe, currently FTSE is up 0.06%. DAX is up 0.02%. CAC is down -0.46%. German 10-year yield is up 0.037 at -0.488. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.82%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.12%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.07%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.61%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0037 to 0.036.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2069; (P) 1.2114; (R1) 1.2150; More...

EUR/USD's rise and break of 1.2157 minor resistance reaffirms the case that pull back from 1.2348 has completed at 1.2052. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.2348 high. However, decisive break of 1.2052 will resume the correction from 1.2348. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.2348 at 1.1887.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Dec 0.48T 0.76T 0.57T 0.55T
00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Jan 3.40% 3.50%
00:30 AUD Employment Change Dec 50K 50K 90K
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Dec 6.60% 6.70% 6.80%
03:00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
12:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Dec 0.30% 0.80% 0.60%
13:30 USD Building Permits Dec 1.71M 1.60M 1.64M
13:30 USD Housing Starts Dec 1.67M 1.56M 1.55M 1.58M
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 15) 900K 860K 965K 926K
13:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Jan 26.5 12.2 11.1 9.1
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jan P -15 -14