Germany Slashes Growth Forecast, UK Tightens Border, Risk Appetite Recedes
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-27-21

Germany Slashes Growth Forecast, UK Tightens Border, Risk Appetite Recedes

Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc strength again today, as dragged down by the decline in European stocks. DOW future is also losing -300pts at the time of writing. Sentiments are slightly weighed down by UK's plan to impose tougher border measures. Germany slashed this year's growth forecasts. Commodity currencies turned softer, following overall risk sentiments. Focus will now turn to FOMC statement and press conference.

Technically, it should be noted that EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD are all staying in familiar range. GBP/USD once against lost momentum after initial rally attempt. But EUR/GBP continues to press 0.8828 temporary low, without giving up. The interesting one now is USD/JPY. While it's still in range of 103.31/104.39, it's pressing a near term channel resistance. Taking out of the channel with conviction will carry bullish implications.

In Europe, currently, FTSE is down -1.43%. DAX is down -2.06%. CAC is down -1.72%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0150 at -0.544. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.31%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.32%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.11%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.45%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0088 to 0.043.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.51; (P) 103.67; (R1) 103.78; More..

USD/JPY's rebound from 103.31 extends higher today but stays below 104.39 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, break of 103.31 will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 102.58 low.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Dec 0.10% 0.50% 0.70%
00:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions Dec 14 9 7
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Dec 4 12 13
00:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q4 0.90% 0.70% 1.60%
00:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q4 0.90% 0.70% 0.70%
00:30 AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q4 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
00:30 AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q4 1.20% 1.20% 1.20%
07:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Feb -15.6 -7.8 -7.3 -7.5
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Dec 0.20% 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Dec 0.70% 0.50% 0.40%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.6M 4.4M
19:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference