Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-1-21

Dollar Continues to Pare Gain, Shrugs Higher PCE Inflation

Dollar continues to pare gains in early US session as the week is coming to a close. PCE inflation data is largely ignored by the markets, while Euro also shrugs CPI. Canadian Dollar also ignores smaller than expected GDP contraction. Sterling is leading the way in the rebound, followed by Aussie. As for the week, the greenback is still in favor to close as the best performer, while New Zealand Dollar is the worst.

In Europe, at the time of the writing, FTSE is down -0.59%. DAX is down -0.31%. CAC is down -0.05%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.039 at -0.236. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -2.31%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0145 to 0.055. Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.15%. China and Hong Kong were on holiday.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1556; (P) 1.1583; (R1) 1.1603; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.1682 resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 1.1561 will extend the whole fall from 1.2348, as a correction to whole rise from 1.0634. Next target is 1.1289 medium term fibonacci level. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1682 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.1908 resistance.

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Economic Calendar

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q3	18	13	14
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3	14	15	13
23:50	JPY	Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q3	2	0	1
23:50	JPY	Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q3	3	5	3
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3	10.10%	9.10%	9.60%
23:30	JPY	Unemployment Rate Aug	2.80%	2.90%	2.80%
23:50	JPY	BoJ Summary of Opinions
00:30	JPY	Manufacturing PMI Sep F	51.5	51.2	51.2
05:00	JPY	Consumer Confidence Index Sep	37.8	38.9	36.7
06:00	EUR	Germany Retail Sales M/M Aug	1.10%	1.60%	-5.10%
07:30	CHF	SVME PMI Sep	68.1	65.6	67.7
07:45	EUR	Italy Manufacturing PMI Sep	59.7	60.1	60.9
07:50	EUR	France Manufacturing PMI Sep F	55	55.2	55.2
07:55	EUR	Germany Manufacturing PMI Sep F	58.4	58.5	58.5
08:00	EUR	Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep F	58.6	58.7	58.7
08:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI Sep F	57.1	56.3	56.3
09:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Y/Y Sep P	3.40%	3.30%	3.00%
09:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Sep P	1.90%	1.80%	1.60%
12:30	CAD	GDP M/M Jul	-0.10%	-0.20%	0.70%
12:30	USD	Personal Income M/M Aug	0.20%	0.20%	1.10%
12:30	USD	Personal Spending Aug	0.80%	0.70%	0.30%	-0.10%
12:30	USD	PCE Price Index M/M Aug	0.40%	0.40%
12:30	USD	PCE Price Index Y/Y Aug	4.30%	3.90%	4.20%
12:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index M/M Aug	0.30%	0.20%	0.30%
12:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Aug	3.60%	3.60%	3.60%
13:30	CAD	Manufacturing PMI Sep	57.2
13:45	USD	Manufacturing PMI SepF	60.2	60.5
14:00	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Sep	71	71
14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI Sep	59.9	59.9
14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Sep	83.8	79.4
14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Sep	49
14:00	USD	Construction Spending M/M Aug	0.30%	0.30%