Dollar Firms Up Slightly after CPI, But No Follow Through Buying Yet
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-13-21

Dollar Firms Up Slightly after CPI, But No Follow Through Buying Yet

Dollar firms up mildly in early US session as headline CPI was back at multi-decade high, which core CPI remains stubbornly strong. The gain in the greenback is so far limited. Overall markets continue to trade in consolidative mode, with mild weakness seen in commodity currencies while Swiss Franc and Euro are rebounding. Next focus is FOMC minutes, but they are unlikely to unveil anything spectacular, other than that Fed is ready to start tapering by the end of the year.

Technically, as Dollar is trying to recover, we'll look at 1.3542 minor support in GBP/USD and 0.7287 minor support in AUD/USD. Break of these level could be a sign that Dollar buying is back. If that happens, we'd also have to seen if EUR/USD would reaccelerate down, while USD/JPY reaccelerates up, to confirm.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.03%. DAX is up 0.56%. CAC is up 0.28%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.032 at -0.114. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.32%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.42%. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.43%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0060 to 0.090.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.15; (P) 113.47; (R1) 113.93; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside as it's trying to resume recent rally after brief retreat. The up trend from 102.58 should target 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 118.18 next. On the downside, break of 112.99 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again. But strong support should be seen above 112.07 to bring rise resumption.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Oct -1.50% 2.00%
23:50 JPY Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Sep 4.20% 4.20% 4.70%
23:50 JPY Machinery Orders M/M Aug -2.40% 1.60% 0.90%
03:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Sep 66.8B 47.2B 58.3B
03:00 CNY Exports (USD) Y/Y Sep 28.10% 21.50% 25.60%
03:00 CNY Imports (USD) Y/Y Sep 17.60% 19.20% 33.10%
03:00 CNY Trade Balance (CNY) Sep 433B 323B 376B
03:00 CNY Exports (CNY) Y/Y Sep 19.90% 17.10% 15.70%
03:00 CNY Imports (CNY) Y/Y Sep 10.10% 22.30% 23.10%
06:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Sep F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
06:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Sep F 4.10% 4.10% 4.10%
06:00 GBP GDP M/M Aug 0.40% 0.50% 0.10% -0.10%
06:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Aug 0.80% 0.40% 1.20% 0.30%
06:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Aug 3.70% 3.00% 3.80% 4.40%
06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Aug 0.50% 0.00% 0.00% -0.60%
06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug 4.10% 6.00% 6.00% 6.10%
06:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Aug -14.9B -11.9B -12.7B
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Aug -1.60% -1.60% 1.50% -1.40%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Sep 0.40% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Sep 5.40% 5.30% 5.30%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Sep 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Sep 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes