Retail Sales Lifts Dollar Higher; Canadian Faces Headwinds After CPI

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-16-23

Retail Sales Lifts Dollar Higher; Canadian Faces Headwinds After CPI

Today's economic data releases are steering the markets, though it is uncertain how sustained their influence will be. Dollar emerges as the day's strongest performer, buoyed by robust retail sales figures. Australian Dollar trails as the initial lift from RBA minutes dissipates, leaving it in the second spot. Euro is firmer after German economic sentiment data showed Eurozone has passed the lowest point.

Meanwhile, Yen experienced a brief surge following reports suggesting an upward revision of inflation forecasts by BoJ. Despite the initial excitement, the currency's climb receded once it became evident that this was not fresh news. Nonetheless, Yen still retains a portion of its gains, displaying a mixed performance.

Conversely, New Zealand Dollar plummeted earlier in Asia following the release of softer-than-anticipated inflation figures. Sterling faced pressure due to uninspiring wage growth data, and Canadian Dollar was not spared either, experiencing a downturn due to a faster cooling in inflation than anticipated. These statistics bolster the argument for the central banks of these nations to hit the pause button again on any imminent policy shifts.

In the technical arena, all eyes are on EUR/GBP over the next 24 hours, especially with the release of UK CPI data looming. Prior strong rebound from 55 D EMA affirms near term bullishness. Firm break of 0.8700/4 resistance zone will resume the rebound from 0.8491. More importantly, that would strengthen the case the it's reversing whole down trend from 0.9267. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 0.8491 to 0.8704 from 0.8614 at 0.8746.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.32%. DAX is down -0.53%. CAC is down -0.41%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0782 at 2.867. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.20%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.75%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.32%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.25%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0295 to 0.785.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3589; (P) 1.3627; (R1) 1.3648; More....

USD/CAD rebounds notably today and focus is back on 1.3699 resistance. Firm break there will target 1.3784 first. Break there will resume larger rise from 1.3091 to retest 1.3976 high. On the downside, below 1.3568 will bring another falling leg to extend the near term corrective pattern from 1.3784 instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
21:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q3 1.80% 1.90% 1.10%
00:30 AUD RBA Minutes
06:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Aug 8.10% 8.30% 8.50%
06:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Aug 7.80% 7.80% 7.80% 7.90%
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Oct -1.1 -9.5 -11.4
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Situation Oct -79.9 -80.5 -79.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Oct 2.3 -8 -8.9
12:30 CAD CPI M/M Sep -0.10% 0.10% 0.40%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Sep 3.80% 4.00% 4.00%
12:30 CAD CPI Median Y/Y Sep 3.80% 4.00% 4.10%
12:30 CAD CPI Common Y/Y Sep 3.70% 3.80% 3.90%
12:30 CAD CPI Trimmed Y/Y Sep 4.40% 4.70% 4.80%
12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.70% 0.30% 0.60%
12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Sep 0.60% 0.20% 0.60%
13:15 USD Industrial Production M/M Sep -0.10% 0.40%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Sep 79.60% 79.70%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Aug 0.30% 0.00%
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Oct 45 45