Dollar Gains on Strong Job Data as Euro Rebounds on GDP

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-30-24

Dollar Gains on Strong Job Data as Euro Rebounds on GDP

Dollar strengthened in the early session, buoyed by surprisingly strong ADP private sector job data that far outpaced expectations. This robust employment figure has bolstered optimism for Friday’s upcoming non-farm payrolls report, which many anticipate will confirm sustained strength in the US labor market. With job growth remaining solid, Fed may feel less pressure to ease its policy aggressively in the near term. However, Dollar’s gains are somewhat tempered by Q3 GDP data, which came in slightly below forecasts, indicating some moderation in overall growth momentum.

Meanwhile, Euro also found support and rallied modestly after Eurozone GDP for Q3 exceeded expectations. Germany, in particular, delivered a surprise by reporting economic growth, allowing it to narrowly avoid a technical recession. This economic resilience lessens the immediate need for ECB to consider more aggressive policy easing in the coming meeting....

Full Report Here

Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0783; (P) 1.0804; (R1) 1.0840; More...

EUR/USD recovered today but stays in range of 1.0760/0871. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 1.0760 will resume the fall from 1.1213 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740. Firm break there will target 1.0601 support next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.0871 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0946).

Full Report Here

EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Monthly CPI Y/Y Sep 2.10% 2.30% 2.70%
00:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q3 0.20% 0.30% 1.00%
00:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q3 2.80% 2.90% 3.80%
00:30 AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q3 0.80% 0.70% 0.80% 0.90%
00:30 AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q3 3.50% 3.50% 3.90%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Oct 36.2 36.8 36.9
06:30 EUR France Consumer Spending M/M Sep 0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
06:30 EUR France GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
08:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer Oct 99.5 105 105.5 104.5
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Oct 27K 18K 17K
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Oct 6.10% 6.10% 6.00%
09:00 CHF UBS Economic Expectations Oct -7.7 -8.8
09:00 EUR Italy GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.00% 0.20% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Germany GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.20% -0.10% -0.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.40% 0.20% 0.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Oct 95.6 96.4 96.2 96.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct -13 -10.5 -10.9 -11
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Oct 7.1 6.5 6.7 7.1
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct F -12.5 -12.5 -12.5
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Oct 233K 110K 143K 159K
12:30 USD GDP Annualized Q3 P 2.80% 3.00% 3.00%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q3 P 1.80% 2.70% 2.50%
13:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Oct P 0.20% 0.00%
13:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Oct P 1.80% 1.60%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Sep 1.90% 0.60%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.5M 5.5M

Dollar Gains on Strong Job Data as Euro Rebounds on GDP

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-30-24

Dollar Gains on Strong Job Data as Euro Rebounds on GDP

Dollar strengthened in the early session, buoyed by surprisingly strong ADP private sector job data that far outpaced expectations. This robust employment figure has bolstered optimism for Friday’s upcoming non-farm payrolls report, which many anticipate will confirm sustained strength in the US labor market. With job growth remaining solid, Fed may feel less pressure to ease its policy aggressively in the near term. However, Dollar’s gains are somewhat tempered by Q3 GDP data, which came in slightly below forecasts, indicating some moderation in overall growth momentum.

Meanwhile, Euro also found support and rallied modestly after Eurozone GDP for Q3 exceeded expectations. Germany, in particular, delivered a surprise by reporting economic growth, allowing it to narrowly avoid a technical recession. This economic resilience lessens the immediate need for ECB to consider more aggressive policy easing in the coming meeting....

Full Report Here

Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0783; (P) 1.0804; (R1) 1.0840; More...

EUR/USD recovered today but stays in range of 1.0760/0871. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 1.0760 will resume the fall from 1.1213 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740. Firm break there will target 1.0601 support next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.0871 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0946).

Full Report Here

EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

RBA November Meeting: Cash Rate Unchanged Until February

GBP/USD Eyes Recovery: Can Bulls Turn The Tide?

UK Budget Preview: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP Price Action Ideas

Gold Wave Analysis

GBPAUD Wave Analysis

Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis
In-depth Reports
alt
RBA November Meeting: Cash Rate Unchanged Until February
alt
November Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period
alt
US Elections Update: The Race to White House Tightens
 
Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Monthly CPI Y/Y Sep 2.10% 2.30% 2.70%
00:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q3 0.20% 0.30% 1.00%
00:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q3 2.80% 2.90% 3.80%
00:30 AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q3 0.80% 0.70% 0.80% 0.90%
00:30 AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q3 3.50% 3.50% 3.90%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Oct 36.2 36.8 36.9
06:30 EUR France Consumer Spending M/M Sep 0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
06:30 EUR France GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
08:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer Oct 99.5 105 105.5 104.5
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Oct 27K 18K 17K
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Oct 6.10% 6.10% 6.00%
09:00 CHF UBS Economic Expectations Oct -7.7 -8.8
09:00 EUR Italy GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.00% 0.20% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Germany GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.20% -0.10% -0.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.40% 0.20% 0.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Oct 95.6 96.4 96.2 96.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct -13 -10.5 -10.9 -11
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Oct 7.1 6.5 6.7 7.1
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct F -12.5 -12.5 -12.5
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Oct 233K 110K 143K 159K
12:30 USD GDP Annualized Q3 P 2.80% 3.00% 3.00%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q3 P 1.80% 2.70% 2.50%
13:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Oct P 0.20% 0.00%
13:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Oct P 1.80% 1.60%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Sep 1.90% 0.60%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.5M 5.5M