Yen Plummets Again on Surging Yields, Dollar Awaits FOMC Minutes
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-7-20

Yen Plummets Again on Surging Yields, Dollar Awaits FOMC Minutes

Yen had a U-turn today and breaks near term support level against Dollar. Resilience in treasury yield is seen as a factor for Yen's weakness. After a brief set back yesterday, US 10-year yield looks set to extend recent rally through 0.78 handle. German 10-year yield is also trying to regain -0.5 handle too. Stock markets are relatively steady, with mixed European indices. DOW futures point to mild gain but it's unsure whether it could reclaim 28000 handle. Staying in the currency markets, Euro and Swiss Franc are still the strongest for the week. New Zealand Dollar and Yen are now the weakest, followed by Sterling. Dollar is mixed, awaiting FOMC minutes for some guidance.

Technically, the risk of selloff in Yen crosses is eased for now. The first focus is on whether USD/JPY could extend the rebound from 104.00 to 106.94 key near term resistance. Then, second focus is whether such move would prompt stronger rebound in Yen crosses in general, or translate into Dollar strength elsewhere. Or, say, rise in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY would keep EUR/USD in range below 1.1807, just like what USD/JPY did below 105.80 a while ago.

In Europe, currently, FTSE is up 0.18%. DAX is down -0.35%. CAC is down -0.12%. German 10-year yield is up 0.0128 at -0.494. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.05%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.09%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.36%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0049 to 0.042. China remained on holiday.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.48; (P) 105.63; (R1) 105.80; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point, for 106.94 resistance. Current development argues revives the case that down trend from 111.71 has completed on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. On the upside, break of 106.94 resistance will confirm and turn outlook bullish. On downside, break of 104.94 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain mildly in favor in case of retreat.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
21:30 AUD AiG Performance of Services Index Sep 36.2 42.5
5:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Aug P 88.8 89.4 86.9 86.7
6:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Aug -0.20% 1.50% 1.20% 1.40%
6:45 EUR France Trade Balance (EUR) Aug -7.7B -6.5B -7.0B
7:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Sep 874B 848B 849B
8:00 EUR Italy Retail Sales M/M Aug 8.20% 3.80% -2.20%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Sep 54.3 67.8
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.0M
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes