Dollar Edges Higher Ahead of FOMC Minutes; Commodity Currencies Continue to Struggle
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-9-24 |
Dollar Edges Higher Ahead of FOMC Minutes; Commodity Currencies Continue to Struggle |
Dollar is broadly stronger today, though the momentum behind the move is not particularly robust. Markets are awaiting insights from several Fed officials and the release of September FOMC minutes later in the US session. While Fed's direction on monetary easing is well understood, the pace of future rate cuts remains uncertain and is unlikely to be definitively answered by today's minutes. At present, Fed funds futures suggest an 86.6% likelihood of a 25bps rate cut at the November meeting, with a slim 13.4% chance of no change. However, these probabilities could be significantly altered by tomorrow’s US CPI report. While today’s FOMC minutes are important, the inflation data is expected to carry much more weight in shaping near-term expectations about Fed’s next steps. So far this week, Dollar is currently the strongest currency, followed by Swiss Franc and Yen. On the other end, Kiwi has been the weakest, trailed by Aussie and Canadian Dollar. It should be noted that, Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Swiss Franc, and Yen are holding within last week's ranges against each other. Commodity currencies, on the other hand, have broken to the downside. It's more about risk aversion for now.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0962; (P) 1.0980; (R1) 1.0998; More.... EUR/USD dips mildly today but stays above 1.0950 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1043 resistance holds. Below 1.0950 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0920. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 1.1213 is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0740 next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 01:00 | NZD | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 4.75% | 4.75% | 5.25% | | 06:00 | JPY | Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Sep P | -6.50% | -3.50% | | 06:00 | EUR | GermanyTrade Balance (EUR) Aug | 22.5B | 18.9B | 16.8B | 16.9B | | 14:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Aug F | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.0M | 3.9M | | 18:00 | USD | FOMC Minutes |
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