Dollar Falls on Weak NFP Job Growth, But Losses Remain Limited

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-1-24

Dollar Falls on Weak NFP Job Growth, But Losses Remain Limited

Dollar saw broad-based weakness in early US session following a much weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report. Headline job growth came in well below forecasts, though market reaction remains tempered, as the data is widely believed to be heavily skewed by recent hurricanes and strikes. With unemployment rate holding steady and wage growth surpassing expectations, the underlying labor market still appears resilient. While this report slightly adjusted market expectations, there remains a near 95% probability of a 25 bps rate cut by Fed next week.

In terms of weekly currency performance so far, Euro remains firmly in the lead. Yen has climbed to second place, benefiting from a post-NFP decline in US Treasury yields. Swiss franc ranks third, though its performance was dampened by weaker-than-expected inflation data, solidifying the chance of another SNB rate cut in December. Aussie remains at the bottom of the chart, followed closely by the Loonie. Sterling, despite a sharp drop on the UK budget news, managed to regain some ground and now ranks as the third weakest. Dollar and Kiwi are positioned mid-range.....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0856; (P) 1.0872; (R1) 1.0900; More...

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.0760 short term bottom continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0945). Strong resistance should be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.0843 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740 will extend the fall from 1.1213 to 1.0601 support next.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Sep 2.60% -5.30% -5.20%
00:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q3 0.90% 0.70% 1.00%
00:30 AUD PPI Y/Y Q3 3.90% 4.80%
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Oct F 49.2 49 49
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Oct 50.3 49.5 49.3
07:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Sep 2.20% 2.50% 3.20% 2.70%
07:30 CHF CPI M/M Oct -0.10% 0.00% -0.30%
07:30 CHF CPI Y/Y Oct 0.60% 0.80% 0.80%
08:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Oct 49.9 49.5 49.9
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Oct F 49.9 50.3 50.3
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 12K 106K 254K 223K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Oct 4.10% 4.10% 4.10%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Oct 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Oct 50.4
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Oct F 47.8 47.8
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Oct 47.6 47.2
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Oct 48.3
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Oct 43.9
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Sep 0.00% -0.10%