Markets Tread Water ahead of Fed Hike and Guidance

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-2-22

Markets Tread Water ahead of Fed Hike and Guidance

The financial markets are all very steady today, awaiting FOMC rate decision. A 75bps hike a done deal, and the key is whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell would signal slower tightening pace ahead. For now, Dollar is the weaker one for today, followed by Euro and Sterling. On the other hand, Yen is the stronger one together with Aussie and Kiwi. But of course, such picture could change drastically after FOMC.

Post FOMC press conference market movements, in stocks, bonds and FX, should largely be driven by risk sentiment. AUD/USD has the potential to have larger moves than other Dollar pairs. Technically, break of 0.6355 minor support will signal that corrective rebound from 0.6169 has completed, and selloff could intensify through this low quickly. On the other hand, firm break of 0.6530 will add to the case of larger reversal, and bring stronger rise to 0.6698/6915 resistance zone.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.08%. DAX is flat. CAC is down -0.10%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.016 at 2.147. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.06%. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.41%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.15%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.34%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0052 to 0.247.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9833; (P) 0.9894; (R1) 0.9934; More...

EUR/USD is staying in range of 0.9847/1.0092 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 0.9847 minor support holds. Break of 1.0092 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9534 at 1.0283. However, break of 0.9847 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9534/9630 support zone instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

NZ Dollar Jumps on Solid Jobs Report

Bank of England Might Disappoint Amid Uncertainties about the Budget

Aussie Climbs Despite Weak Mfg. Data

USDJPY Consolidates after Advance Pauses, Uptrend Intact

USD/JPY: The Last Leg of the Bullish Impulse is Similar to the Ending Diagonal

NZDUSD Shows Positive Signs above 50-day SMA in Short-term

A Fourth 75 bps Rate Hike is a Done Deal

Don't Expect Powell to Spark a Risk Rally

 

 

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
21:30 AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index Oct 49.6 50.2
21:45 NZD Employment Change Q3 1.30% 0.50% 0.00%
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q3 3.30% 3.20% 3.30%
21:45 NZD Labour Cost Index Q/Q Q3 1.10% 1.00% 1.30%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Oct -6.90% -2.00% -3.30%
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
00:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Sep 6.60% 5.50% 5.70%
00:30 AUD Building Permits M/M Sep -5.80% -9.00% 28.10% 23.10%
07:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Sep 3.7B 0.5B 1.2B
08:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Oct 46.5 46.9 48.3
08:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Oct F 47.2 47.4 47.4
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Oct 8K 15K 14K
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Oct 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
08:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct F 45.1 45.7 45.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct 46.4 46.6 46.6
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Oct 239K 198K 208K 192K
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.2M 2.6M
18:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.00% 3.25%
18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference