Sterling Shows Mixed Response to BoE; Dollar Faces Mounting Pressure

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-2-23

Sterling Shows Mixed Response to BoE; Dollar Faces Mounting Pressure

In the wake of BoE's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, Sterling exhibited a mixed performance, gaining against Dollar yet faltering when paired with the Euro and commodity-linked currencies. The voting pattern at the BoE leaned slightly more hawkish than anticipated, but the newly projected rate path suggests the peak in interest rates was reached already. The Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground, exacerbated by a further dip in 10-year yield, now below 4.7% mark. This development is mirrored in US stock futures, which are signaling positive opening.

Currently, Dollar is the third weakest performer of the week, managing only marginal gains over Yen and the Swiss Franc. However, its position remains precarious. In contrast, Australian Dollar leads the pack as the week's strongest, followed by New Zealand Dollar and Euro. Canadian Dollar shows a mixed performance, while Sterling struggles to keep pace with its peers.

Technically, EUR/USD is back pressing 55 D EMA with today's strong bounce. Strong break of this EMA and 1.0693 resistance will carry bullish implication. Further rise should at least be seen to 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763). However, rejection by 55 D EMA will keep near term outlook bearish for another fall through 1.0447, soon.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 1.24%. DAX is up 1.60%. CAC is up 1.94%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.085 at 2.680. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.10%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.75%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.45%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.19%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0433 to 0.916.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2110; (P) 1.2137; (R1) 1.2179; More

GBP/USD is still bounded in established range despite today's rebound, and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 1.2287 resistance will argue that rise from 1.2036 is resuming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2458. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2036 will resume whole decline from 1.3141 for 1.1801 support next.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Oct 9.00% 5.90% 5.60%
00:30 AUD Goods Trade Balance (AUD) Sep 6.79B 9.58B 9.64B 10.16B
07:30 CHF CPI M/M Oct 0.10% 0.10% -0.10%
07:30 CHF CPI Y/Y Oct 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
08:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Oct 44.9 46.5 46.8
08:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Oct F 42.8 42.6 42.6
08:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct F 40.8 40.7 40.7
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Oct 30K 15K 10K
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Oct 5.80% 5.80% 5.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct F 43.1 43 43
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Oct 8.80% 58.20%
12:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 5.25% 5.25% 5.25%
12:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 3--0--6 2--0--7 4--0--5
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 27) 217K 210K 210K 212K
12:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity Q3 P 4.70% 4.00% 3.50%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q3 P -0.80% 1.10% 2.20%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 81B 74B