Yen Leads Markets, Dollar Weakens With Reversal Risks

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-27-24

Yen Leads Markets, Dollar Weakens With Reversal Risks

Yen is asserting dominance in today’s markets, benefiting from notable decline in US and European benchmark treasury yields. US 10-year yield, in particular, is seeing a renewed drop, which is gaining momentum alongside the weakening USD/JPY. This raises the risks that both could be reversing their rallies that began in mid-September. However, with reduced liquidity during the US Thanksgiving holiday, current price actions could be exaggerated, leaving markets to await next week for more definitive trend signals.

Overall in the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar is the second-best performer today after Yen, as investors continue to digest RBNZ's latest rate projections. The central bank’s guidance has left markets divided on whether February will bring another 50bps rate cut or a more modest 25bps adjustment. Meanwhile, Euro ranks third, partly supported by hawkish remarks from a senior ECB official. Despite this, Euro’s movement still appears more like consolidation of its recent losses rather than a clear trend reversal. On the weaker side, Dollar leads the day’s losses, followed by Loonie and Aussie. Both currencies remain under pressure from trade and domestic growth concerns. Sterling and Swiss Franc are holding middle positions....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.57; (P) 153.53; (R1) 154.07; More...

USD/JPY's corrective fall from 156.74 is extending lower and intraday bias stays on the downside. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 156.74 at 150.18, but strong support is expected there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 153.23 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 156.74. However, decisive break of 150.18 will argue that whole rise from 139.57 could have completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 146.12 next.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Monthly CPI Y/Y Oct 2.10% 2.50% 2.10%
01:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 4.25% 4.25% 4.75%
02:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
09:00 CHF UBS Economic Expectations Nov -12.4 -7.7
09:30 EUR Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Dec -23.3 -18.8 -18.3 -18.4
13:30 USD GDP Annualized Q3 P 2.80% 2.80% 2.80%
13:30 USD GDP Price Index Q3 P 1.90% 1.80% 1.80%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22) 213K 220K 213K 215K
13:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Oct P -99.1B -101.6B -108.2B
13:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Oct P 0.20% -0.10% -0.20%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Oct 0.20% 0.40% -0.70%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transport Oct 0.10% 0.20% 0.50%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Nov 44.9 41.6
15:00 USD Personal Income M/M Oct 0.30% 0.30%
15:00 USD Personal Spending Oct 0.40% 0.50%
15:00 USD PCE Price Index M/M Oct 0.20% 0.20%
15:00 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct 2.30% 2.10%
15:00 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Oct 0.30% 0.30%
15:00 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct 2.80% 2.70%
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Oct -1.70% 7.40%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.3M 0.5M
17:00 USD Natural Gas Storage -4B -3B