Sterling Dives as BoE Refrains from Rate Hike, Yen and Franc Firm
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-4-21

Sterling Dives as BoE Refrains from Rate Hike, Yen and Franc Firm

Sterling drops sharply after BoE stands pat, disappointing those who expected a hike. Euro is currently following as the second weakest for the day. On the other hand, Yen and Swiss Franc rise broadly, supported by falling benchmark yields in Germany and UK. Dollar is also firm as general investor sentiment is cautious, awaiting tomorrow's non-farm payroll report.

Technically, GBP/CHF extends recent decline and hits as low as 1.2350 so far. Choppy fall from 1.3070 is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we'd expect strong support from 1.2259 to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 1.2259 would argue that medium term trend has already reversed. If that happens, medium term bearishness of the Pound would be confirmed if EUR/GBP also breaks 0.8656 resistance.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.43%. DAX is up 0.54%. CAC is up 0.39%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.022 at -0.189. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.93%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.80%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.81%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0021 to 0.082.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3632; (P) 1.3662; (R1) 1.3717; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3833 resumes after brief consolidation and hits as low as 1.3531 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.3410 low. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 1.4280 to 1.3164 medium term fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 1.3697 will turn intraday bias to the upside for 1.3833 resistance instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Oct 2.10% 1.00% 1.50%
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Sep 12.24B 12.22B 15.08B 14.74B
07:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders M/M Sep 1.30% 2.00% -7.70%
08:00 CHF SECO Consumer Climate Q4 4 5 8
08:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Oct 52.4 54.5 55.5
08:50 EUR France Services PMI Oct F 56.6 56.6 56.6
08:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Oct F 52.4 52.4 52.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Oct F 54.6 54.7 54.7
09:30 GBP Construction PMI Oct F 54.6 54 52.6
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Sep 2.70% 1.90% 1.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep 16.00% 15.20% 13.40%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Oct -71.70% -84.90%
12:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
12:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility 875B 875B 875B
12:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 2--0--7 0--0--9 0--0--9
12:00 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--3--6 0--2--7 0--2--7
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Sep 1.9B 2.3B 1.9B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) 269K 277K 281K 283K
12:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) Sep -80.9B -74.5B -73.3B -72.8B
12:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity Q3 P -5.00% -1.50% 2.10%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q3 P 8.30% 5.20% 1.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 1.5B 87B