Currency Markets Steady as US Election Looms, Kiwi Eyes Key Employment Data
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-5-24 |
Currency Markets Steady as US Election Looms, Kiwi Eyes Key Employment Data |
Global currency markets are treading water today, as all eyes turn to the US presidential election, where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a dead heat. Adding to the suspense, the Congressional elections will determine the president’s ability to push policy forward effectively, making the stakes especially high. Given the close race and critical swing states, a definitive result on election night is unlikely, leaving markets in a state of “nervous calm” as they await clarity. Australian and New Zealand Dollars stand out as the better performers today. Aussie, in particular, is supported by RBA's steady stance with no dovish shift, as well as positive sentiment from an Asian stock market rebound. On the other hand, Dollar, Yen, and Canadian dollar lag behind. European majors are mixed while Sterling has a slight edge over Euro and Swiss Franc. Looking ahead, New Zealand’s employment report in the upcoming Asian session could bring some volatility for Kiwi. The market expects a -0.5% contraction in Q3 employment and a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 5.0%. Earlier today, RBNZ flagged persistent downside risks for the economy in the Financial Stability Report. With a 50bps rate cut widely anticipated for the final meeting of the year on November 27, any downside surprise in employment data could raise the possibility of a more aggressive 75bps cut..... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.59; (P) 152.08; (R1) 152.62; More... USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation below 153.87 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor with 151.44 support intact. Sustained trading above of 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 will pave the way to retest 161.94 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 151.44 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.08). | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Monetary Base Y/Y Oct | -0.30% | 0.30% | -0.10% | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI Oct | 52 | 50.5 | 50.3 | | 03:30 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.35% | | 04:30 | AUD | RBA Press Conference | | 06:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate Oct | 2.60% | 2.60% | 2.60% | | 07:45 | EUR | France Industrial Output M/M Sep | -0.90% | -0.70% | 1.40% | 1.10% | | 09:30 | GBP | Services PMI Oct F | 52 | 51.8 | 51.8 | | 13:30 | CAD | Trade Balance (CAD) Sep | -1.3B | -1.6B | -1.1B | | 13:30 | USD | Trade Balance (USD) Sep | -84.4B | -75.3B | -70.4B | -70.8B | | 13:45 | USD | Services PMI Oct F | 55.3 | 55.3 | | 15:00 | USD | ISM Services PMI Oct | 53.3 | 54.9 | | 18:30 | CAD | BoC Summary of Deliberations |
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