Dollar Stays Strong on Trump's Win While Republicans Sweep Congress
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-6-24 |
Dollar Stays Strong on Trump's Win While Republicans Sweep Congress |
Following Donald Trump's clear victory over Kamala Harris in the US presidential election, accompanied by a full Republican “Red Sweep” in Congress, US futures, Treasury yields, and the Dollar all surged sharply higher. Markets are responding favorably to expansionary fiscal policies, tax cuts, and a pro-growth agenda under the new administration. Major European indexes also rose, despite warnings from some analysts that Trump’s return may be an economic "nightmare" for Europe. In currency markets, Dollar has jumped to a clear leadership position. Euro and Yen are currently the weakest performers, followed by Swiss Franc and Sterling. Loonie is holding second place, benefiting from its close economic ties with the US, while risk-on sentiment has kept both Kiwi and Aussie relatively resilient. Attention now shifts to tomorrow's rate decisions by BoE and Fed. Both central banks are widely expected to implement a 25 bps rate cut in response to softer inflationary pressures. BoE’s new economic projections, which will be released with the rate decision, could offer more clarity on the pace of policy easing going forward. For Fed, probability of another rate cut in December has slipped below 70%, as indicated by fed funds futures, reflecting increased market uncertainty.... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.12; (P) 151.83; (R1) 152.32; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 139.57 should target 61.8% projection of 141.63 to 153.87 from 151.27 at 158.83. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 151.27 support holds, in case of retreat. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:45 | NZD | Employment Change Q3 | -0.50% | -0.50% | 0.40% | 0.20% | | 21:45 | NZD | Unemployment Rate Q3 | 4.80% | 5.00% | 4.60% | | 21:45 | NZD | Labour Cost Index Q/Q Q3 | 0.60% | 0.70% | 0.90% | | 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Minutes | | 00:30 | JPY | Services PMI Oct F | 49.7 | 49.3 | 49.3 | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Factory Orders M/M Sep | 4.20% | 1.80% | -5.80% | | 08:50 | EUR | France Services PMI Oct F | 49.2 | 48.3 | 48.3 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Oct F | 51.6 | 51.4 | 51.4 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Oct F | 51.6 | 51.2 | 51.2 | | 09:30 | GBP | Construction PMI Oct | 54.3 | 55.3 | 57.2 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI M/M Sep | -0.60% | -0.50% | 0.60% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep | -3.40% | -3.50% | -2.30% | | 15:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI Oct | 54.2 | 53.1 | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.5M |
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