Dollar Selloff Extends after PCE Inflation, Breaking to the Downside

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-1-22

Dollar Selloff Extends after PCE Inflation, Breaking to the Downside

Dollar's selloff picks up momentum in early US session after PCE inflation slowed more than expected in October, while core PCE also declined. The data give a nod to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comment that smaller rate hikes could start in December. Yen is the better performer as supported by extended pull back in US and European benchmark yields. But Euro and Sterling are clearly advancing with more conviction. Commodity currencies are also firm but lag behind.

Technically, EUR/USD is breaking 1.0496 while GBP/USD has taken out 1.2152 resistance, confirming resumption of recent rally. Similarly, Gold has also taken out 1786.83 resistance to resume the rise from 1616.51. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1616.51 to 1786.83 from 1728.43 at 1833.73. It's a bit early to judge, but there is prospect of extending the rise to 1900 handle, which is close to another cluster fibonacci level.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.16%. DAX is up 1.01%. CAC is up 0.46%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.1074 at 1.827. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.92%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.75%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.45%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.07%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0006 to 0.251.

Full Report Here

Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1944; (P) 1.2015; (R1) 1.2130; More...

GBP/USD's rally resumed by breaking 1.2152 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 1.0351 should target 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.1145 at 1.2288 first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 1.2759 medium term fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.1898 minor support is needed to indicate short term topping, otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in case of retreat.

Full Report Here

EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

Silver Bulls Roar Back; Meet Key Resistance

US 30 Index Unlocks New More-than-7-month High

Platinum Wave Analysis

AUDNZD Wave Analysis

NZDUSD Wave Analysis

EUR/USD: Euro Keeps Firm Tone on Weaker Dollar, Improved Economic Data

Australian Dollar Flies after Powell Speech

Dollar Index: Dollar Under Fresh Pressure from Less Hawkish than Expected Powell

AUDUSD Targets 200-SMA after Solid November

WTI Oil Futures Bounce Off 11-Month Low

Two Trades to Watch: DAX, USD/JPY

Elliott Wave View: FTSE Looking to End 5 Waves

Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis
In-depth Reports
Euro Inflation Notes - A 'Sticky' Problem
Research US - 50 or 75bp? Fed's December Checklist
The Big Picture - Recession with Different Undercurrents
Fed Minutes Suggest a More Gradual Pace of Rate Hikes Ahead
Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
21:30 AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index Nov 44.7 49.6
00:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure Q3 -0.60% 1.20% -0.30%
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Nov F 49 49.4 49.4
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Nov 49.4 48.6 49.2
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Nov 28.6 30.2 29.9
07:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Oct -2.80% -0.60% 0.90%
07:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Oct -2.50% 3.30% 3.20% 2.60%
07:30 CHF CPI M/M Nov 0.00% 0.20% 0.10%
07:30 CHF CPI Y/Y Nov 3.00% 2.60% 3.00%
08:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Nov 53.9 53 54.9
08:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Nov 48.4 47.3 46.5
08:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Nov F 48.3 49.1 49.1
08:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov F 46.2 46.7 46.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F 47.1 47.3 47.3
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Nov F 46.5 46.2 46.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct 6.50% 6.60% 6.60%
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Nov 416.50% 48.30%
13:30 CAD Labor Productivity Q/Q Q3 0.60% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
13:30 USD Personal Income M/M Oct 0.70% 0.40% 0.40%
13:30 USD Personal Spending Oct 0.80% 0.80% 0.60%
13:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Oct 0.30% 0.50% 0.30%
13:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct 6.00% 6.20% 6.20% 6.30%
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Oct 0.20% 0.40% 0.50%
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct 5.00% 5.00% 5.10% 5.20%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 25) 225K 245K 240K 241K
14:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Nov 50 48.8
14:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Nov F 47.6 47.6
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov 50.5 50.2
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Nov 47.3 46.6
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Nov 50
15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Oct -0.10% 0.20%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -82B -80B