Sterling and Euro Surge as BoE and ECB Hold Rates, Contrast Fed's Dovish Stance
| Action Insight Daily Report 12-14-23 |
Sterling and Euro Surge as BoE and ECB Hold Rates, Contrast Fed's Dovish Stance |
Sterling and Euro jumped sharply following the decisions by BoE and ECB to leave interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Notably, both central banks diverged from Fed's recent dovish turn, with explicit statements pushing back on the speculation of rate cuts. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, speaking after the rate announcement, emphasized the premature nature of speculating about cutting interest rates. He stated, "We've got to see more progress." Similarly, ECB President Christine Lagarde, in her post-meeting press conference, made it clear that the governing council did not discuss a rate cut in their meeting. She underlined the ECB's vigilance, asserting the need to "keep our guard up" and closely monitor data to ascertain if the recent decline in inflation is sustainable... |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2534; (P) 1.2585; (R1) 1.2669; More... Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Sustained break of 1.2731 will confirm resumption of whole rally from 1.2036. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2068 to 1.2731 from 1.2499 at 1.2909. On the downside, below 1.2651 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2499 support holds. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 21:45 | NZD | GDP Q/Q Q3 | -0.30% | 0.20% | 0.90% | 0.50% | | 23:50 | JPY | Machinery Orders M/M Oct | 0.70% | -0.50% | 1.40% | | 00:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations Dec | 4.50% | 4.90% | | 00:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance Nov | -43% | -58% | -63% | | 00:30 | AUD | Employment Change Nov | 61.5K | 10.0K | 55.0K | 42.7K | | 00:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate Nov | 3.90% | 3.80% | 3.70% | 3.80% | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Oct F | 1.30% | 1.00% | 1.00% | | 07:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices M/M Nov | -0.90% | 0.10% | 0.20% | | 07:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Nov | -1.30% | -0.90% | | 08:30 | CHF | SNB Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% | | 09:00 | CHF | SNB Press Conference | | 12:00 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.25% | 5.25% | | 12:00 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 3--0--6 | 2--0--7 | 3--0--6 | | 13:15 | EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% | | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Oct | -2.80% | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 8) | 202K | 221K | 220K | 221K | | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Nov | 0.30% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Nov | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.10% | 0.00% | | 13:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M Nov | -0.40% | -0.80% | -0.80% | | 13:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | | 15:00 | USD | Business Inventories Oct | 0.00% | 0.40% | | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -60B | -117B |
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