Yen continues to dominate the relatively quiet forex markets today, with USD/JPY slipping below the key 150 psychological. The move is largely fueled by rising speculation that BoJ may tighten policy again sooner than expected, a sentiment that's also reflected in 10-year JGB yield's rally to another 15-year high. While the base case for BoJ’s next rate hike remains in the second half of the year, traders are increasingly betting on an earlier move—especially if this year’s Shunto wage negotiations deliver wage increases in line with last year’s strong outcomes. The next major test for Yen will be Japan’s January CPI release in the upcoming Asian session. The market is expecting core CPI to rise slightly from 3.0% to 3.1%. Any upside surprise, particularly if core-core CPI (which excludes fresh food and energy) also rises, could strengthen market conviction that BoJ may need to act sooner than currently anticipated. A hot inflation print, combined with rising wage pressures, would likely push traders to further price in an earlier rate hike and adding to Yen strength. Beyond Yen’s rally, Nikkei 225 is also worth watching, as its technical outlook could provide further signals. Firm break of 38401.82 support could be an earlier sign that corrective rebound from 31156.11 has finally completed. That would set up deeper fall to 38.2% retracement 31156.11 to 40398.23 at 36867.74. If realized, deeper decline in Nikkei should also be accompanied by extended fall in USD/JPY. ... |