Euro and Sterling Sink on Escalating Risks of Russia Invading Ukraine
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-22-22

Markets Surprisingly Calm Despite War Risks and Sanctions, Euro Recovers

The markets are surprisingly calm despite some initial volatility on escalation in Russia Ukraine situation. News of sanctions on Russia are staying to flow out, with the UK sanctioning five Russians banks and three individuals. Germany also put the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on hold. But there are just very little reactions in the markets.

Major European indexes are mixed in very tight range while DOW futures are just slightly down. Yields of benchmark treasuries are indeed rising. Gold is hovering around 1900 handle after initial rally lost momentum. WTI crude oil also retreats quickly after breaching 95.98 resistance very briefly.

In the currency markets, Kiwi and Aussie are currently the strongest ones. Euro is following closely with help from rally in German yields. Sterling remains the worst performing, but Swiss Franc and Yen are also weak. Dollar and Loonie are mixed in between.

At the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.24%. DAX is down -0.31%. CAC is down -0.03%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.070 at 0.278. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.71%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -2.69%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.96%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.04%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0108 to 0.198.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1282; (P) 1.1336; (R1) 1.1364; More...

EUR/USD recovers notably after initial dip today, but stays well inside range of 1.1265/1482. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, firm break of 1.1482 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 to 1.1120 at 1.1589 next. Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 1.2348 has completed too and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1879. On the downside, however, break of 1.1265 support will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 1.1120 low instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y Jan 1.20% 1.20% 1.10%
07:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jan -3.7B -3.6B 16.1B
09:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate Feb 98.9 96.5 95.7 96.0
09:00 EUR Germany IFO Current Assessment Feb 98.6 96.6 96.1 96.2
09:00 EUR Germany IFO Expectations Feb 99.2 96.5 95.2 95.8
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Y/Y Dec 18.00% 18.30%
14:00 USD Housing Price Index M/M Dec 1.10% 1.10%
14:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Feb P 56 55.5
14:45 USD Services PMI Feb P 53 51.2
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Feb 110.2 113.8