ECB Winning the Race of Hawkish Surprises, Euro Overpowers Sterling
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-3-22

ECB Winning the Race of Hawkish Surprises, Euro Overpowers Sterling

It looks like ECB is beating BoE in the race of hawkish surprise in a jam-packed day. Sterling spiked higher after four of the nine MPC members have indeed voted for a larger hike of 50bps. However, there was no clear follow through buying as BoE indicated there will only be "some further modest tightening " ahead.

On the other hand, ECB President Christine Lagarde admitted in the post-meeting press conference that inflation surprises caused unanimous concerns in the Governing Council. More importantly, she refused to repeat the talk that a rate hike in 2022 remain highly likely. It seems that Lagarde is leaving the door open to a change in forward guidance in March to reflect the chance of a rate hike within this year.

Elsewhere in the forex markets, Dollar is recovery mildly today but remains the weakest one for the week, followed by Yen. Aussie is still the strongest but it's path would depend on overall risk sentiment.

Technically, a major focus now is whether EUR/GBP could ride on the u-turn to power through 0.8421 resistance, to pave the way for bullish trend reversal just ahead of 0.8276 key long term support.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.14%. DAX is down -0.28%. CAC is down -0.07%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.039 at 0.081, marching towards 0.1 handle. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.06%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.001 to 0.180. Singapore Strait Times rose 2.04%. Hong Kong and China were on holiday.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1272; (P) 1.1301; (R1) 1.1335; More...

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.1120 accelerates higher today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.1482 resistance. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, a medium term bottom could be in place already. Break of 1.1482 will affirm this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 to 1.1120 at 1.1639 next. On the downside however, break of 1.1265 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.1120 low instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
21:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index Dec 45.9 57
00:30 AUD Building Permits M/M Dec 8.20% -0.90% 3.60% 2.60%
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Dec 8.36B 9.80B 9.42B 9.76B
08:50 EUR France Services PMI Jan F 53.1 53.1 53.1
08:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Jan F 52.2 52.2 52.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Jan F 51.1 51.2 51.2
09:30 GBP Services PMI Jan F 54.1 53.5 53.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Dec 2.90% 3.00% 1.80%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Dec 26.20% 26.60% 23.70%
12:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.25%
12:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 9--0--0 7--0--2 8--0--1
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jan -76.00% -75.30%
12:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 28) 238K 264K 260K 261K
13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity Q4 P 6.60% 2.80% -5.20%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q4 P 0.30% 1.50% 9.60%
14:45 USD Services PMI Jan F 50.9 50.9
15:00 USD ISM Services PMI Jan 58.7 62
15:00 USD ISM Services Prices Paid Jan 83 82.5
15:00 USD Factory Orders M/M Dec 0.10% 1.60%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -280B -219B