US-Canada Talks Offer Hope, But Risk Aversion Keeps Yen in Demand

Action Insight Md-Day Report 2-3-25

US-Canada Talks Offer Hope, But Risk Aversion Keeps Yen in Demand

After a burst of volatility earlier in the session, currency markets are taking a breather as traders reassess the evolving US tariff situation. Comments from White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett helped cool tensions when he clarified that, "This is not a trade war, this is a drug war," directing the focus toward fentanyl imports rather than a sweeping escalation of protectionist policies. His remarks have provided a temporary sense of relief, as markets take a step back to evaluate whether tariff measures could be adjusted or reversed if progress is made on fentanyl control.

President Donald Trump’s updates on discussions with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have also offered a glimmer of hope that a negotiated outcome could avert more severe tariff measures. Market sentiment hangs on the possibility that resolving fentanyl-related disputes could defuse tensions, but the risks for a breakdown in talks still looms. A failure to find common ground would likely re-energize the recent selloff and send safe-haven flows back into assets like the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0328; (P) 1.0381; (R1) 1.0412; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Decisive break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0176 from 1.0531 at 0.9890. On the upside, above 1.0349 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0531 resistance holds, in case of strong recovery.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Dec -0.10% -0.70% 0.80% 0.70%
00:30 AUD Building Permits M/M Dec 0.70% 1.00% -3.60% -3.40%
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Jan F 48.7 48.8 48.8
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Jan 50.1 50.5 50.5
08:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Jan 47.5 48.4
08:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Jan F 45 45.3 45.3
08:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Jan F 45 44.1 44.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan F 46.6 46.1 46.1
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Jan F 48.3 48.2 48.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan P 2.50% 2.40% 2.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jan P 2.70% 2.60% 2.70%
14:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Jan 51.6 52.2
14:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Jan F 51.2 50.1 50.1
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Jan 50.9 49.3 49.3
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Jan 54.9 52.6 52.5
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Jan 50.3 45.3
15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Dec 0.50% 0.30% 0.00%