Sterling Tumbles on BoE’s Dovish Rate Cut

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-6-25

Sterling Tumbles on BoE’s Dovish Rate Cut

The British Pound weakened significantly after BoE delivered a 25bps rate cut. The policy decision was more dovish than anticipated, primarily due to the unexpected shift in the MPC voting split. Catherine Mann, previously one of the most hawkish members of the committee, reversed course and joined Swati Dhingra in voting for a more aggressive 50bps cut.

Adding to the bearish sentiment on Sterling, BoE’s updated economic projections painted a complicated macroeconomic outlook. The central bank sharply downgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast. At the same time, inflation forecasts were revised higher. Facing the increased uncertainty, BoE emphasized its commitment to a "gradual and careful" approach to policy easing.

Overall with today's announcement, risk is clearly tilted toward a more dovish policy stance. The base case remains as one 25bps cut per quarter throughout 2025,. But today’s decision raises the probability of a faster easing cycle, in particular if growth conditions worsen further....

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2462; (P) 1.2506; (R1) 1.2548; More...

GBP/USD dips notably today but stays above 1.2248 support and intraday bias remains neutral. While corrective rebound from 1.2099 could still extend, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609. On the downside, break of 1.2248 support will bring retest of 1.2099 first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.3433. However, decisive break of 1.2609 will raise the chance of near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Q4 -4 -6 -7
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Dec 5.09B 6.73B 7.08B 6.79B
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate M/M Jan 2.70% 2.70% 2.60% 2.70%
07:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders M/M Dec 6.90% 1.70% -5.40% -5.20%
09:30 GBP Construction PMI Jan 48.1 53.7 53.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Dec -0.20% -0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
12:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50% 4.75%
12:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0--9--0 0--8--1 0--3--6
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jan -39.50% 11.40%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 31) 219K 214K 207K 208K
13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity Q4 P 1.20% 1.80% 2.20%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q4 P 3.00% 3.30% 0.80%
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Jan 53 54.7
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -167B -321B