Dollar Gains Modestly on NFP, But Lacks Momentum

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-7-25

Dollar Gains Modestly on NFP, But Lacks Momentum

Dollar edged higher in early US session following the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, but the overall momentum remains lackluster. Stock futures are flat, while 10-year Treasury yield is staging a slight recovery, suggesting a measured market response as traders hold back from aggressive positioning ahead of next week's key economic events including US CPI and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony.

While headline NFP figure of 143k fell short of expectations, the dip in the unemployment rate to 4.0% and strong wage growth at 0.5% mom have reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance towards further policy easing. Markets now see over 90% chance that Fed will keep rates unchanged in March, while expectations for another hold in May stands at 70%.

Overall, despite today's recovery, Dollar is still trading as the worst performer for the week, followed by Euro, and then Swiss Franc. Yen continues to sit at the top of the ladder, followed by Canadian, and then Aussie. Kiwi and Sterling are mixed in the middle....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0355; (P) 1.0381; (R1) 1.0410; More...

EUR/USD dips mildly but stays well inside range of 1.0176/0531. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. Strong resistance is expected from 1.0531 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, sustained break of 1.0531 will rise the chance of bullish reversal and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rally.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Dec 2.70% 0.30% -0.40%
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Dec P 108.9 108.1 107.5
07:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Dec -2.40% -0.70% 1.50% 1.30%
07:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Dec 20.7B 17.1B 19.7B
07:45 EUR France Trade Balance (EUR) Dec -3.9B -5.3B -7.1B -6.3B
08:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Jan 736B 731B
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Jan 76.0K 26.5K 90.9K
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Jan 6.60% 6.80% 6.70%
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 143K 169K 256K 307K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate Jan 4.00% 4.10% 4.10%
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jan 0.50% 0.30% 0.30%
15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Dec F -0.50% -0.50%