Dollar Extends Rally, Euro Shrugs Solid Investor Confidence
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-8-21

Dollar Extends Rally, Euro Shrugs Solid Investor Confidence

Dollar's rally continues today but buying is mainly centered against Euro, Swiss Franc and Kiwi. Euro is getting no support from better than expected investor confidence data. Thanks to some resilience in crosses, Sterling is following as the second strongest for now. Commodity currencies are trading mildly softer but they're generally holding above Friday's low. Risk sentiment in European market is mixed and traders would look into the development in the US, in particular in tech stocks, as well as treasury yields.

Technically, one focus is on whether NASDAQ would break through last week's low at 12397, and how DOW and S&P 500 would react if that happens. That could drive the volatility in commodity currencies. 10-year yield is current pressing 1.6 handle but question remains on whether it could extend the rally beyond this level. Gold is also resuming recent down trend by taking out Friday's low. Attention will be on sign of downside acceleration below the medium term channel support.

In Europe, currently, FTSE is up 0.04%. DAX is up 1.30%. CAC is up 0.80%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0227 at -0.278. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.42%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.92%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -2.30%. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.90%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.025 to 0.122.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1877; (P) 1.1928; (R1) 1.1962; More....

EUR/USD's decline continues to as low as 1.1855 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 1.2348 to 1.1951 from 1.2242 at 1.1845. We'll pay attention to bottoming signal around there to complete the correction from 1.2348. Break of 1.1951 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside. However, decisive break of 1.1845 will extend the correction to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Bank Lending Y/Y Feb 6.20% 6.10%
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Jan 1.50T 2.20T 2.28T 2.08T
5:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Jan P 99.1 94.4 95.3
6:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Feb 41.3 43.4 31.2
6:45 CHF Unemployment Rate M/M Feb 3.60% 3.60% 3.50%
7:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Jan -2.50% -1.40% 0.00% 1.90%
9:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Mar 5 1 -0.2
15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jan F 1.30% 1.30%