Euro Declines After ECB Opens Door for Rate Cuts, Dollar Eases Following PPI Data

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-11-24

Euro Declines After ECB Opens Door for Rate Cuts, Dollar Eases Following PPI Data

Euro weakens broadly following ECB's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, coupled with explicit suggestions of a potential rate cut ahead. However, selloff has been relatively mild, primarily because ECB's statement didn't serve as a definitive pre-announcement of rate cuts, unlike its 2022 guidance on rate hike. Moreover, the conditional guidance regarding future rate adjustments had been largely anticipated, given previous communications from ECB officials. Still, risk is now mildly on the downside for the common currency, especially in crosses.

Concurrently, Dollar is also paring some of its post CPI strong gain, after PPI data came in lower than market expected. While the PPI report might not significantly hasten a Fed rate cut in June, it at least doesn't push it further in time. Meanwhile, the greenback's pullback remains slight. Renewed selloff in US stocks could trigger further gains for Dollar...

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0779; (R1) 1.0830; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Decisive break of 1.0694/0723 support zone will resume whole fall from 1.1138. Next target is 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536. On the upside, above 1.0766 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0884 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Mar -4% -6% -10%
23:50 JPY Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Mar 2.50% 2.40% 2.50% 2.40%
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Apr 4.60% 4.30%
01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Mar 0.10% 0.40% 0.70%
01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Mar -2.80% -2.80% -2.70%
08:00 EUR Italy Industrial Output M/M Feb 0.10% 0.50% -1.20% -1.40%
12:15 EUR ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
12:15 EUR ECB Rate On Deposit Facility 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Mar 0.20% 0.30% 0.60%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Mar 2.10% 2.30% 1.60%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Mar 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Mar 2.40% 2.30% 2.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 5) 211K 215K 221K 222K
12:45 EUR ECB Press Conference
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 14B -37B