Stronger Inflation Data Fails to Lift Dollar; Yen's Decline Persists

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-26-24

Stronger Inflation Data Fails to Lift Dollar; Yen's Decline Persists

Dollar remains stable in early US session despite release of another set of persistently high inflation figures. The strong rebound in DOW futures suggest that investors are somewhat relieved to see no disastrous surge in inflation rates. Additionally, robust spending growth appears set to continue bolstering the US economy, even as Fed is set to maintain higher interest rates for an for much longer.

Attention is turning back to Japanese Yen for the last hours of the week, which continues its steep decline. During his post-meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda provided little support to stabilize Yen. Ueda mentioned that the central bank would consider raising interest rates if new data supports its latest price forecasts or if inflation exceeds expectations. However, he did not specify any clear timing for rate adjustments. Furthermore, Ueda dismissed the possibility of a comprehensive reduction in bond purchases at this stage.

Regarding the exchange rate, Ueda remarked that the current weakness of the Yen has not significantly impacted the core inflation rates yet. He also noted that weak Yen could have some positive effects on demand which might influence core inflation in the medium to long term. The lack of heightened concern seems to indicate that it's not time for Japan to intervene yet...

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.32; (P) 155.53; (R1) 155.87; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. Some resistance could be seen there to bring retreat. But further rally is expected as long as 154.77 resistance turned support holds. Sustained break of 157.09 will target 138.2% projection at 161.14 next.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Apr -19 -20 -21
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Apr 1.80% 2.60%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y Apr 1.60% 2.20% 2.40%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food & Energy Y/Y Apr 1.80% 2.90%
01:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q1 -1.80% 0.10% 1.10%
01:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q1 0.90% 0.90%
01:30 AUD PPI Y/Y Q1 4.30% 4.10%
03:22 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Mar 0.90% 0.50% 0.40%
12:30 USD Personal Income M/M Mar 0.50% 0.50% 0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Mar 0.80% 0.60% 0.80%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Mar 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Mar 2.70% 2.60% 2.50%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Mar 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Mar 2.80% 2.60% 2.80%
14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Apr F 77.9 77.9