Dollar Rebounds on Strong Employment Cost Data, Euro Supported by GDP and CPI Core
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-30-24 |
Dollar Rebounds on Strong Employment Cost Data, Euro Supported by GDP and CPI Core |
Dollar's rebound is picking up momentum in early US session, bolstered by latest Employment Cost Index which rose by 1.2% in Q3, marking the fastest pace since Q3 2022. This unexpected acceleration in employment costs adds to a series of economic data that suggests the US economy remains hotter than preferred. Especially, persistently elevated services inflation and tight labor market are holding back Fed's plan for interest rate cuts. With this economic backdrop, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to temper market expectations tomorrow about the feasibility of three rate cuts this year, reinforcing the notion that Fed would maintain a more cautious approach to monetary policy easing. Meanwhile, Euro also recovers slightly today, spurred by stronger than anticipated Q1 GDP growth combined with slower-than-expected decline in April's CPI core. While these developments are unlikely to disrupt ECB's tentative plans for June rate cut. The scenario of continued economic momentum and slowing disinflation would diminish the urgency for aggressive rate cuts by ECB, supporting a strategy of two rate reductions by the end of Q3 and Q4, respectively... |
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9079; (P) 0.9116; (R1) 0.9143; More.... Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.9155 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9085 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Mar P | 3.80% | 3.40% | -0.60% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Mar | 1.20% | 2.20% | 4.70% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Mar | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.60% | | 01:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence Apr | 14.9 | 22.9 | | 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Mar | -0.40% | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Mar | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.50% | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI Apr | 50.4 | 50.4 | 50.8 | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Apr | 51.2 | 52.2 | 53 | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI Apr | 51.4 | 51 | 51.1 | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Mar | -12.80% | -7.60% | -8.20% | | 05:30 | EUR | France Consumer Spending M/M Mar | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% | | 05:30 | EUR | France GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price Index M/M Mar | 0.40% | 0.10% | -0.20% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Mar | 1.80% | 1.30% | -1.90% | | 07:00 | CHF | KOF Leading Indicator Apr | 101.8 | 101.7 | 101.5 | 100.4 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Apr | 10K | 7K | 4K | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Apr | 5.90% | 5.90% | 5.90% | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 08:00 | EUR | Germany GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.20% | 0.10% | -0.30% | | 08:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M Mar | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.60% | | 08:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals Mar | 61K | 61K | 60K | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.00% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Apr P | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI CoreY/Y Apr P | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.90% | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Feb | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.60% | 0.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Employment Cost Index Q1 | 1.20% | 1.00% | 0.90% | | 13:00 | USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y Feb | 7.30% | 6.70% | 6.60% | | 13:00 | USD | Housing Price Index M/M Feb | 1.20% | 0.10% | -0.10% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Apr | 45.2 | 41.4 | | 14:00 | USD | Consumer Confidence Apr | 104 | 104.7 |
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