Dollar Remains Weak after Disappointing US ADP Data, Yen and Swiss Franc Rally

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-5-23

Dollar Remains Weak after Disappointing US ADP Data, Yen and Swiss Franc Rally

Disappointing US private job data doesn't trigger significant fresh selling in Dollar, but it's still maintaining its position as the week's weakest performer so far. Countervailing forces from declining US and European benchmark treasury yields are keeping the greenback's losses against Euro and Sterling in check. However, Swiss Franc and Yen seem to be making headway in broad rallies.

Australian Dollar is currently the day's weakest performer, as post-RBA selloff gains momentum. Meanwhile, New Zealand Dollar is holding onto its gains after a larger-than-expected RBNZ rate hike during the Asian session, although no clear follow-through buying has emerged.

From a technical standpoint, AUD/JPY's rebound from 86.04 is likely complete at 90.15, following a rejection by the 55 day EMA. Deeper decline is now anticipated towards 86.04 and below, resuming the overall downtrend from 99.32. The key level to watch ahead is 61.8% projection of 99.32 to 87.00 from 93.02 at 85.40. Firm break below this level could trigger a more rapid decline to the 100% projection at 80.70, potentially within Q2.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.28%. DAX is down -0.51%. CAC is down -0.25%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.019 at 2.234. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.68%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0532 to 0.469. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.23%. Hong Kong and China were on holiday.

Full Report Here

Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9031; (P) 0.9087; (R1) 0.9118; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the downside for 38.2% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.9023. Decisive break there will extend the down trend from 1.0146 to 61.8% projection at 0.8767.On the upside, above 0.9099 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral again.

Full Report Here

EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Eyes Canada's Job Report

USD/CHF: Falls to Multi-Month Low as Pressure on Greenback Rises

New Zealand Dollar Surges But Unable to Consolidate after RBNZ Hkes by 50 Basis Points

Dollar Index – Consolidation to Precede Final Push Towards 100.66/00 Targets

Rate Surprise from New Zealand

Ethereum's Overtaking

AUD/USD: Aussie Dollar Under Increased Pressure on Expectations that Interest Rate Has Peaked

NZDUSD Points to Bullish Continuation

GBPCAD at Tight Range, Bulls on Their Toes

USDJPY Dips After Failing to Jump Above Ichimoku Cloud

NZD/USD: Kiwi Jumps after RBNZ Surprise, But Bulls Face Headwinds

EUR/USD, Gold Forecasts: Two Trades to Watch

Gold Finally Rallies Well Above 2,000

Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis
In-depth Reports
alt
US Dollar Price Action Setups for Q2: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
alt
Research US - Upbeat Macro Data Keeps the Fed on a Tightening Bias
Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
02:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 5.25% 5.00% 4.75%
06:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders M/M Feb 4.80% 0.40% 1.00% 0.50%
06:45 EUR France Industrial Output M/M Feb 1.20% 0.60% -1.90% -1.40%
07:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Mar 55.7 53 51.6
07:50 EUR France Services PMI Mar F 53.9 55.5 55.5
07:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Mar F 53.7 53.9 53.9
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Mar F 55 55.6 55.6
08:30 GBP Services PMI Mar F 52.9 52.8 52.8
09:00 EUR Italy Retail Sales M/M Feb -0.10% 0.50% 1.70%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Mar 145K 200K 242K 261K
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Feb 0.4B 2.2B 1.9B 1.2B
12:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) Feb -70.5B -68.5B -68.3B -68.7B
13:45 USD Services PMI Mar F 53.8 53.8
14:00 USD ISM Services PMI Mar 54.5 55.1