NFP Fuels Dollar Surge, Canadian Jobs Drag Loonie

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-5-24

NFP Fuels Dollar Surge, Canadian Jobs Drag Loonie

Dollar rises broadly in early US session in response to surprisingly strong non-farm payroll data. Dollar's ascent is notably pronounced the Canadian Dollar, which simultaneously grapples with its own disappointing employment figures. But against others, the overall strength of the greenback remains somewhat contained for now. The picture could shift dramatically as the NFP report catalyzes a significant surge in US treasury yields and exerts downward pressure on stock futures. Should the turmoil in stocks and bonds persist, Dollar may well gather substantial momentum later in the session.

As for the week at this point, Australian Dollar remains the standout performer, followed by New Zealand Dollar. Dollar's ascent post-NFP has positioned it as the third strongest currency for the now. Conversely, Canadian Dollar finds itself at the bottom of the performance ladder, with the Swiss Franc not far ahead. Euro and British Pound re mixed, positioned in the middle alongside Japanese Yen. But there is room for the picture to change drastically before weekly close...

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3495; (P) 1.3527; (R1) 1.3576; More...

USD/CAD's rally from 1.3716 resumed by breaking through 1.3613 resistance and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise should target channel resistance at 1.3664 first. Sustained break there would prompt upside acceleration towards 1.3897 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3477 support holds, in case of retreat.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

US: Payrolls Surprise to the Upside (Again), Unemployment Rate Ticks Down to 3.8% 

Canada's Labour Market Sheds Jobs, Unemployment Rate Jumps

EURUSD Trims Earlier Gains as Clock Ticks Down to NFP

USD/JPY: Trades Within Extended Narrow Range Ahead of Key US Labor Data

Japanese Yen Jumpy Ahead of US Payrolls

BTC/USD Analysis: Bearish Arguments Become More Convincing

AUD Takes a Pause After Rally

GBPJPY Trades Lower Ahead of Key Market Events

USDCAD Ticks Higher Within Ascending Channel

Cliff Notes: Marking Time

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Feb -0.50% -2.80% -6.30%
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Mar 7.28B 10.50B 11.03B 10.06B
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Feb P 111.8 111.6 109.9 109.5
06:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders M/M Feb 0.20% 0.60% -11.30% -11.40%
06:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M Feb -0.20% -0.10% 0.00%
06:45 EUR France Industrial Output M/M Feb 0.20% 0.50% -1.10% -0.90%
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Mar 715B 678B
08:30 GBP Construction PMI Mar 50.2 49.8 49.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb -0.50% -0.30% 0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 303K 205K 275K 270K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Mar 3.80% 3.90% 3.90%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Mar 0.30% 0.30% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Mar -2.2K 34.5K 40.7K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Mar 6.10% 5.90% 5.80%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Mar 54.2 53.9