EUR/USD Downside Breakout, Yen in Upside Acceleration
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-12-22

EUR/USD Downside Breakout, Yen in Upside Acceleration

Yen is the runaway winner today on massive safe-haven flows, which also pushed up treasury bonds. Meltdown in cryptocurrencies intensified further, as bitcoin barely holds on to 25k. Major European indexes are in deep red while US futures, in particular NASDAQ, are pointing to lower open. Benchmark treasury yields extend pull back, as US 10-year yield is back at 2.83 while Germany 10-yearly yield is back at 0.85.

Back in the currency markets, Dollar is following Yen as the second strongest. Aussie is the worst performing so far. But Euro's selloff is worth more of a mention, despite hawkish comments from ECB officials. The weakness in Euro is somewhat amplified by the selloff against Sterling and Swiss Franc.

Technically, AUD/JPY's fall from 95.73 extends to as low as 87.94 so far today. The break of near term falling channel support suggests downside acceleration. The break of 100% projection of 95.73 to 90.41 from 94.00 at 88.68 also raises the chance that 95.73 is already a medium term top. Next line of defense is in 86.24 resistance turned support. Firm break there will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 2020 low at 59.85 already. Such development, if happens, could be reflected in global stocks and even bond markets too.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -2.12%. DAX is down -2.30%. CAC is down -2.56%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.131 at 0.860. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.77%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -2.24%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.12%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.89%. Japan 10-yaer JGB yield rose 0.0026 to 0.251.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0485; (P) 1.0531 (R1) 1.0560; More...

EUR/USD finally breaks through 1.0470 support today as larger down trend resumes. Intraday bias is back on the downside with focus on 1.0339 long term support. Firm break there will carry larger bearish implication and target 161.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0069. On the upside, break of 1.0641 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Apr 80% 71% 74%
23:50 JPY Bank Lending Y/Y Apr 0.90% 0.40% 0.50%
23:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Mar 1.56T 0.63T 0.52T
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations May 5.00% 5.20%
03:00 NZD RBNZ Inflation Expectations Q/Q Q2 3.29% 3.27%
05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Apr 51.3 47.8
06:00 GBP GDP M/M Mar -0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
06:00 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.80% 1.00% 1.30%
06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Mar -0.20% 0.00% -0.40% -0.60%
06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar 1.90% 2.30% 3.60% 3.50%
06:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Mar -0.20% 0.10% -0.60% -0.30%
06:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 0.70% 0.40% 1.60% 2.10%
06:00 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Mar 0.40% 0.90% 0.80%
06:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Mar -23.9B -18.5B -20.6B
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices M/M Apr 1.30% 0.90% 0.80%
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Apr 6.70% 5.80% 6.10%
11:31 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) Apr 0.30% 1.00% 0.80%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Apr 0.50% 0.50% 1.40% 1.60%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Apr 11.00% 10.70% 11.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Apr 0.40% 0.60% 1.00% 1.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Apr 8.80% 8.90% 9.20%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (May 6) 203K 190K 200K 202K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 82B 77B