Dollar and Risk Sentiment Revert to Inverse Relationship as Week Ends

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-19-23

Dollar and Risk Sentiment Revert to Inverse Relationship as Week Ends

As we wind down the week, dollar seems to have resumed its inverse relationship with risk sentiment. Major European stock indices are trending upwards, with Germany's DAX reaching hitting a new record high. Meanwhile, Euro and other European currencies are registering notable gains against Yen and the greenback. However, these European majors are trailing behind commodity currencies, with New Zealand dollar standing firm as this week's strongest performer.

Earlier today, Yen's brief and weak recovery came to an abrupt halt and selling pressure has once again taken hold. Barring any last-minute changes, the Japanese currency is poised to end the week as the most underperforming currency.

Technically, GBP/JPY's breach of 172.30 resistance today suggests that recent up trend is ready to resume for 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51. CHF/JPY also looks ready to break through 153.93 towards 161.8% projection of 137.40 to 147.58 from 140.21 at 156.68. The question is when EUR/JPY would follow and break through 151.60 resistance too.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.42%. DAX is up 0.74%. CAC is up 0.76%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0397 at 2.488. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.77%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.40%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.42%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.63%. Japan 10-year JGB yield closed up 0.0222 at 0.407.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0739; (P) 1.0794; (R1) 1.0824; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with today's recovery. But further decline will remain in favor as long as 1.0903 resistance holds. Fall from 1.1094 is seen as a correction to whole up trend from 0.9534. Below 1.0759 will resume the decline to 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, though, firm break of 1.0903 will bring stronger rebound back to retest 1.1094 high instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Apr 427M -1310M -1273M -1586M
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence May -27 -30
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Apr 3.50% 3.20%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Apr 3.40% 3.40% 3.10%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core-core Y/Y Apr 4.10% 3.80%
04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Mar -1.70% -0.10% 0.70% 1.70%
06:00 EUR Germany PPI M/M Apr 0.30% -0.50% -2.60% -1.40%
06:00 EUR Germany PPI Y/Y Apr 4.10% 4.00% 7.50% 6.70%
08:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Mar -1.40% -1.30% -0.20%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Mar -0.30% -0.80% -0.70%