Dollar and Risk Sentiment Revert to Inverse Relationship as Week Ends
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-19-23 |
Dollar and Risk Sentiment Revert to Inverse Relationship as Week Ends |
As we wind down the week, dollar seems to have resumed its inverse relationship with risk sentiment. Major European stock indices are trending upwards, with Germany's DAX reaching hitting a new record high. Meanwhile, Euro and other European currencies are registering notable gains against Yen and the greenback. However, these European majors are trailing behind commodity currencies, with New Zealand dollar standing firm as this week's strongest performer. Earlier today, Yen's brief and weak recovery came to an abrupt halt and selling pressure has once again taken hold. Barring any last-minute changes, the Japanese currency is poised to end the week as the most underperforming currency. Technically, GBP/JPY's breach of 172.30 resistance today suggests that recent up trend is ready to resume for 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51. CHF/JPY also looks ready to break through 153.93 towards 161.8% projection of 137.40 to 147.58 from 140.21 at 156.68. The question is when EUR/JPY would follow and break through 151.60 resistance too. In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.42%. DAX is up 0.74%. CAC is up 0.76%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0397 at 2.488. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.77%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.40%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.42%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.63%. Japan 10-year JGB yield closed up 0.0222 at 0.407. |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0739; (P) 1.0794; (R1) 1.0824; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with today's recovery. But further decline will remain in favor as long as 1.0903 resistance holds. Fall from 1.1094 is seen as a correction to whole up trend from 0.9534. Below 1.0759 will resume the decline to 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, though, firm break of 1.0903 will bring stronger rebound back to retest 1.1094 high instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 22:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (NZD) Apr | 427M | -1310M | -1273M | -1586M | | 23:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence May | -27 | -30 | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Y/Y Apr | 3.50% | 3.20% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core Y/Y Apr | 3.40% | 3.40% | 3.10% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core-core Y/Y Apr | 4.10% | 3.80% | | 04:30 | JPY | Tertiary Industry Index M/M Mar | -1.70% | -0.10% | 0.70% | 1.70% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany PPI M/M Apr | 0.30% | -0.50% | -2.60% | -1.40% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany PPI Y/Y Apr | 4.10% | 4.00% | 7.50% | 6.70% | | 08:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales M/M Mar | -1.40% | -1.30% | -0.20% | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Mar | -0.30% | -0.80% | -0.70% |
|
|
|
