Markets Cheer Solid NFP, Tariff Fallout Appears Milder Than Feared
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-2-25 |
Markets Cheer Solid NFP, Tariff Fallout Appears Milder Than Feared |
Risk assets are rallying to end the week as investors take comfort in the stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll report. The data helped to offset recession concerns after surprise Q1 GDP contraction. While the GDP miss raised alarms, it was largely attributed to a surge in imports ahead of the April tariff changes, rather than a fundamental decline in domestic activity. Supporting that narrative, both the ISM Manufacturing survey and today labor data suggest that the early effects of tariff uncertainty may be more muted than initially feared. Adding to the relief, there are tentative signs that trade negotiations, even with China, are inching forward. Beijing has acknowledged the possibility of returning to the table, though it reiterated that all unilateral US tariffs must be lifted. This narrative of progress, however incremental, has helped support equities and risk-sensitive assets. In the currency markets, pro-risk currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi are outperforming today on improved global sentiment. Meanwhile, Dollar is under mild while Sterling and Loonie are also lagging. Euro finds modest support after a surprising acceleration in core inflation.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1257; (P) 1.1299; (R1) 1.1332; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, below 1.1265 will resume the correction from 1.1572 short term top. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039 to complete the correction. On the upside, break of 1.1424 will bring retest of 1.1572 high next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Building Permits M/M Mar | 9.60% | 0.70% | 0.80% | | 23:50 | JPY | Monetary Base Y/Y Apr | -4.80% | -2.00% | -3.10% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Mar | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Mar | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.80% | | 01:30 | AUD | PPI Q/Q Q1 | 0.90% | 0.80% | 0.80% | | 01:30 | AUD | PPI Y/Y Q1 | 3.70% | 3.70% | | 07:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI Apr | 45.8 | 48.7 | 48.9 | | 07:50 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Apr F | 48.7 | 48.2 | 48.2 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr F | 48.4 | 48 | 48 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr F | 49 | 48.7 | 48.7 | | 09:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar | 6.20% | 6.10% | 6.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Apr P | 2.20% | 2.10% | 2.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Apr P | 2.70% | 2.50% | 2.40% | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls Apr | 177K | 130K | 228K | 185K | | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate Apr | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 14:00 | USD | Factory Orders M/M Mar | 4.20% | 0.60% |
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