Sterling Up as BoE June Cut Hopes Diminish; But Dollar and Kiwi Outshine
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-22-24 |
Sterling Up as BoE June Cut Hopes Diminish; But Dollar and Kiwi Outshine |
Sterling climbed broadly today after data showed that UK disinflation progress was slower than anticipated, with services inflation remaining persistently high. This development dashed hopes for an imminent rate cut by BoE, causing the odds of a rate cut in June to plummet from around 50% to below 20%. Despite this, the notable declines in both headline and core CPI keep the possibility of a rate cut at the BoE's August meeting alive. While the Pound is performing well, it has been outpaced by New Zealand Dollar and US Dollar. Kiwi surged earlier following hawkish RBNZ statement and forecast. The central bank left OCR unchanged but signaled an increased likelihood of another rate hike this year and delayed the projected timing of the first rate cut to the latter half of 2025... |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2689; (P) 1.2708; (R1) 1.2729; More... Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2633 from 1.2445 at 1.2780. Firm break there will target 1.2892 resistance next. However, break of 1.2685 will minor support will turn bias back to the downside, for retreat to 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2644). | |
GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance (JPY) Apr | -0.56T | -0.73T | -0.70T | -0.68T | 23:50 | JPY | Machinery Orders M/M Mar | 2.90% | -1.80% | 7.70% | 02:00 | NZD | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 5.50% | 5.50% | 5.50% | 06:00 | GBP | CPI M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.60% | 06:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y Apr | 2.30% | 2.10% | 3.20% | 06:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y Apr | 3.90% | 3.60% | 4.20% | 06:00 | GBP | RPI M/M Apr | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 06:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y Apr | 3.30% | 3.30% | 4.30% | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Input M/M Apr | 0.60% | 0.40% | -0.10% | -0.20% | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Input Y/Y Apr | -1.60% | -1.20% | -2.50% | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Output M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.20% | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Output Y/Y Apr | 1.10% | 1.20% | 0.60% | 0.70% | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output M/M Apr | 0.00% | 0.30% | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output Y/Y Apr | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | 14:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales Apr | 4.18M | 4.19M | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -2.4M | -2.5M | 18:00 | USD | FOMC Minutes |
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