Sterling Dives on Recession Fear, Euro Firm on Rate Talks
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-24-22

Sterling Dives on Recession Fear, Euro Firm on Rate Talks

The moves in the financial markets Sterling fall broadly today after much worse than expected PMI data raises concerns of recession ahead. On the other hand, Euro jumps as ECB officials continued to talk up July rate hike, while PMI data were solid. Still, the best performer today so far is Yen, which is supported by receding risk-on sentiment. Dollar is also trying to regain some ground. For the same reason, Aussie and Kiwi are turning softer.

Technically, it looks like Euro and Sterling are diverging, which is in-line with the broader case that EUR/GBP is in medium term reversal. Immediate focus is now on 0.8617 resistance in the cross. Firm break there will extend the rebound from 0.8210 to 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. This level will be crucial in determining the underlying momentum in EUR/GBP.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.08%. DAX is down -0.85%. CAC is down -0.93%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.012 at 1.005. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.94%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.75%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -2.41%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.58%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0084 to 0.232.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2509; (P) 1.2555; (R1) 1.2633; More..

GBP/USD is staying in range of 1.2329/2637 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.2637 will confirm short term bottoming at 1.2154. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2775). On the downside, below 1.2329 minor support will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 1.2154 first. Break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4248.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Q/Q Q1 -0.50% 0.40% 8.60% 8.30%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales ex Autos Q/Q Q1 0.00% 0.40% 6.80%
23:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI May P 55.3 58.8
23:00 AUD Services PMI May P 53 56.1
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI May P 53.2 53.8 53.5
06:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Apr 17.8B 17.8B 17.3B 13.9B
07:15 EUR France Manufacturing PMI May P 54.5 55.1 55.7
07:15 EUR France Services PMI May P 58.4 58.6 58.9
07:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI May P 54.7 54.1 54.6
07:30 EUR Germany Services PMI May P 56.3 57.2 57.6
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May P 54.4 54.9 55.5
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI May P 56.3 57.5 57.7
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI May P 54.6 55.1 55.8
08:30 GBP Services PMI May P 51.8 57.3 58.9
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI May P 57.9 59.2
13:45 USD Services PMI May P 55.3 55.6
14:00 USD New Home Sales Apr 750K 763K