Euro Dips Mildly after France and Germany Inflation, Risk Aversion Continues

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-31-23

Euro Dips Mildly after France and Germany Inflation, Risk Aversion Continues

Risk aversion is the main theme in the markets today, as selloff in stocks started in Asia following poor data from China, and continued through European session. Dollar and Yen are holding firm as the strongest ones for now. Euro traded a touch lower after lower than expected inflation readings in France and Germany, but downside is so far limited. European majors are still relatively supported by buying against commodity currencies. New Zealand and Australian Dollar are staying as the worst performers.

Technically, development in EUR/AUD is worth a watch on whether selloff in Aussie would intensify. Break of 1.6514 temporary top will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 1.6134. This rally is either the second leg of the pattern from 1.6785, or resuming the larger up trend. But in either case, next target will be a test on 1.6785 high.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.19%. DAX is down -0.48%. CAC is down -0.81%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.042 at 2.293. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.41%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.94%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.61%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.90%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0037 to 0.433.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0689; (P) 1.0718; (R1) 1.0763; More...

EUR/USD's fall from 1.1094 resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall is seen as corrective the whole up trend from 0.9534. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, break of 1.0745 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0836).

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr P -0.40% 1.40% 1.10%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Apr 5.00% 7.10% 7.20% 6.90%
01:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence May -31.1 -43.8
01:30 AUD Monthly CPI Y/Y Apr 6.80% 6.40% 6.30%
01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Apr 0.60% 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%
01:30 AUD Construction Work Done Q1 1.80% 0.60% -0.40% 1.00%
01:30 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI May 48.8 49.4 49.2
01:30 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI May 54.5 54.9 56.4
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Apr -11.90% -0.90% -3.20%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index May 36 36.1 35.4
06:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M Apr -1.70% -0.60% -1.10%
06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Apr -3.70% -1.40% -1.90%
06:45 EUR France Consumer Spending M/M Apr -1.00% 0.30% -1.30% -0.80%
06:45 EUR France GDP Q/Q Q1 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Apr 9K 15K 24K 23k
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Apr 5.60% 5.60% 5.60%
08:00 CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations May -32.2 -33.3
12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M May P -0.10% 0.30% 0.40%
12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y May P 6.10% 6.50% 7.20%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Mar 0.00% -0.10% 0.10%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI May 47.1 48.6
18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book