Swiss Franc Dips, Dollar Range Bound as Fed Hike Awaited
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-4-22

Swiss Franc Dips, Dollar Range Bound as Fed Hike Awaited

Major forex pairs are generally stuck inside yesterday's range as markets await FOMC rate decision. Swiss Franc is the exception, though, as the selloff against Euro spreads to other Franc pairs. Dollar and Canadian are the next weaker ones. On the other hand, Aussie and Kiwi are the firmer one while Euro and Sterling are mixed. The picture should easily be changed by post FOMC volatility.

Fed is widely expected to raise federal funds rate by 50bps to 0.75-1.00% today. The plan for balance sheet runoff should be announced too. But the main question is what next. Fed fund futures are currently pricing in 99.1% chance of a 75bps hike in June. Markets would be eager to get some hints from Chair Jerome Powell on such expectations. But then, Powell is unlikely to give anything concrete.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.42%. DAX is down -0.04%. CAC is down -0.57%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0216 at 0.993. Earlier in Asia, Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.10%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.23%. Japan and China were on holiday.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0265; (P) 1.0290; (R1) 1.0325; More....

EUR/CHF's rebound from 1.0186 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.0369/0400 resistance zone. Firm break there will resume the rebound from 0.9970 to 1.0610 structural resistance. On the downside, below 1.0186 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0086 support, to extend the corrective pattern from 1.0400.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index Apr 55.9 56.5
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q1 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q1 3.20% 3.10% 3.20%
22:45 NZD Labour Cost Index Q/Q Q1 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Mar 2.70% 2.10%
01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Mar 1.60% 0.50% 1.80%
06:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Mar 3.2B 12.3B 11.5B
07:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Apr 55.7 53.9 52.1
07:50 EUR France Services PMI Apr F 58.9 58.8 58.8
07:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Apr F 57.6 57.9 57.9
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Apr F 57.7 57.7 57.7
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Mar 0.10% 0.80% 1.00%
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Mar 71K 70K 71K
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar -0.40% -0.20% 0.30% 0.40%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Apr 247K 370K 455K 479K
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Mar 2.5B 4.0B 2.7B 3.1B
12:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) Mar -109.8B -106.6B -89.2B -89.8B
13:45 USD Services PMI Apr F 54.7 54.7
14:00 USD ISM Services PMI Apr 59 58.3
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.7M 0.7M
18:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 0.50%
18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference