Sterling Dives after Unexpected GDP Contraction, Yen and Dollar Surge
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-13-22

Sterling Dives after Unexpected GDP Contraction, Yen and Dollar Surge

Sterling falls broadly today after GDP unexpected contracted for the second month in April. Chance of an overall contract in Q2 is raised while there are few positive signs for Q3 for now. Meanwhile, the remaining chance of a 50bps hike by BoE later this week is basically priced out. Aussie and Kiwi are the next weakest on risk aversion. European indexes are in deep red while US futures point to gap downs. US 10-year yield breaks above 3.2 handle in pre-trading. Yen overpowers Dollar today, and Swiss is the third strongest with Canadian.

Technically, now, the focus is on whether Sterling would break through some key near term support levels. The levels include 1.2154 support in GBP/USD and 0.8617 resistance in EUR/GBP and 162.88. Firm break of these levels could prompt even deeper selloff in the Pound. But at the same time, attention is also on 139.99 minor support in EUR/JPY and 162.88 minor support in GBP/JPY. Break of these levels could come if risk aversion intensifies.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -1.36%. DAX is down -2.19%. CAC is down -2.38%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0781 at 1.598. Earlier in Asia, DOW dropped -3.01%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -3.39%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.89%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.33%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0009 to 0.255.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2242; (P) 1.2380; (R1) 1.2459; More...

GBP/USD accelerates lower today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Decisive break of 1.2154 low will will resume larger down trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3297 to 1.2154 from 1.2666 at 1.1960. Break there will target 100% projection at 1.1523 next. On the upside, above 1.2310 minor resistance will delay the bearish case, and turn intraday bias neutral first.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Index Q2 -9.9 -4.2 -7.6
06:00 GBP GDP M/M Apr -0.30% 0.20% -0.10%
06:00 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Apr 0.00% 0.40% 0.40%
06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Apr -1.00% 0.20% -0.20%
06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Apr 0.50% 1.80% 1.90%
06:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Apr -0.60% 0.20% -0.20%
06:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Apr 0.70% 0.50% 0.70%
06:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Apr -20.9B -20.3B -23.9B
11:13 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) May -0.10% 0.30% 0.20%