Markets Turn Cautious ahead of FOMC, Fed to Hike 50bps or 75bps?
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-15-22

Markets Turn Cautious ahead of FOMC, Fed to Hike 50bps or 75bps?

The forex markets are generally staying inside yesterday's range so far today. Stocks in Europe and US futures are recovering while treasury yields retreat. Traders are clearly turning cautious ahead of FOMC rate decision. The question is whether Fed would deliver 75bps hike as markets priced in, or stick to its 50bps per meeting plan. Euro's recovery attempt was brief as ECB delivered nothing special after the ad hoc meeting on fragmentation.

Technically, focuses remain on some levels to confirm Dollar's underlying strength, if it attempts to rally after FOMC. The levels include 1.0348 in EUR/USD, 0.6828 support in AUD/USD, 1.0063 resistance in USD/CHF and 1.3075 resistance in USD/CAD.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.99%. DAX is up 0.97%. CAC is up 0.78%. Germany 10-yaer yield is down -0.132 at 1.620. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.14%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.14%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.50%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.10%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0008 to 0.256.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0382; (P) 1.0434 (R1) 1.0470; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Risk stays on the downside as long as 1.0786 resistance holds. Below 1.0396 will target 1.0339 long term support. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. Next target is long term projection level at 1.0090.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Current Account (NZD) Q1 -6.14B -5.96B -7.26B -7.34B
23:50 JPY Machinery Orders M/M Apr 10.80% -1.50% 7.10%
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Jun -4.50% -5.60%
02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y May 0.70% -1.00% -2.90%
02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y May -6.70% -7.30% -11.10%
02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y May 6.20% 6.00% 6.80%
04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Apr 0.70% 0.80% 1.30% 1.70%
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices M/M May 0.90% 0.60% 1.30%
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices Y/Y May 6.90% 6.90% 6.70%
07:00 CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Apr -31.7B -14.5B -17.6B
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Apr 0.40% 0.50% -1.80%
12:15 CAD Housing Starts May 287K 265K 267K
12:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Jun -1.2 5 -11.6
12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M May -0.30% 0.20% 0.90% 0.70%
12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M May 0.50% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M May 0.60% 1.10% 0.00%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Apr 1.20% 2.00%
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 68 69
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.3M 2.0M
18:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 1.50% 1.00%
18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference