Cautious Calm Holds as Israel-Iran Conflict Continues
| Action Insight Mid-Day 6-17-25 |
Cautious Calm Holds as Israel-Iran Conflict Continues |
Tuesday’s Asian and European sessions saw little conviction across even when geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East persisted. The Israel-Iran conflict, now into its fifth day, is generating concern but not yet panic. Oil and gold, typically sensitive to regional instability, remain rangebound, and equities are slightly softer with no meaningful follow-through on the downside. Currency markets are similarly directionless. Kiwi and Aussie are leading the day, followed by Yen. Sterling is underperforming, alongside Dollar and Euro. Swiss Franc and Loonie sit in the middle of the pack. This mixed profile speaks to an underlying sense of hesitation. BoJ’s meeting produced little market reaction, but the newly outlined bond tapering plan has drawn some quiet praise. By mapping out a gradual reduction in JGB purchases for fiscal 2026, BoJ has signaled a willingness to act should long-end yields rise sharply again. While the move is more of a gesture at this stage, it has added to the perception that BoJ full ready a more flexible stance. With the BoJ out of the way, investor focus now shifts firmly to Fed. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, markets will be parsing Chair Powell’s language closely for any signs of movement on timing for next rate cuts. Meanwhile, BoE and SNB will follow on Thursday, rounding out a critical week for central bank actions...... |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3534; (P) 1.3578; (R1) 1.3621; More... Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as consolidations continue below 1.3631 temporary top. With 1.3455 support intact, further rally is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3631 will resume the rally from 1.2099 and target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. On the downside, break of 1.3455 support should confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3320) instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 03:30 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 06:30 | JPY | BoJ Press Conference | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun | 47.5 | 34.5 | 25.2 | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation Jun | -72 | -78 | -82 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun | 35.3 | 23.5 | 11.6 | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M May | -0.90% | -0.60% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M May | -0.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M May | 0.00% | -0.20% | 0.10% | | 13:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M May | 0.10% | 0.00% | | 13:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization May | 77.70% | 77.70% | | 14:00 | USD | Business Inventories Apr | 0.00% | 0.10% | | 14:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index Jun | 35 | 34 |
|
|
|
