Markets Tread Water Ahead of Fed Decision, Dots in Focus
| Action Insight Mid-Day 6-18-25 |
Markets Tread Water Ahead of Fed Decision, Dots in Focus |
Trading remains subdued across the forex markets as participants brace for the dual risk events: Fed’s policy decision and the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Currency pairs are largely bounded inside last week’s ranges, with traders opting for caution rather than conviction. Aussie and Kiwi lead this week’s performance, while Sterling, Franc, and Yen lag. The Dollar sits on firmer ground but has yet to generate strong directional momentum. Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, a decision already fully priced in by markets. Attention will center on the updated Summary of Economic Projections and the new dot plot. In March, the median forecast pointed to two rate cuts in 2025, but that view was narrowly held. A shift in just two members’ projections could tilt the median down to a single cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to reiterate the “wait and see” strategy, repeating that policy is appropriately restrictive for now. While markets are leaning toward a rate cut by September, Powell is unlikely to offer strong forward guidance, especially with inflation risks and tariff timelines still unresolved. Recent labor market softness may receive some acknowledgment, but overall, Fed is expected to stick with its existing posture. Meanwhile, global risk sentiment continues to be tested by the increasingly sharp rhetoric between the US and Iran. President Trump called for the “unconditional surrender” of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, warning that he is an “easy target.” In response, Khamenei vowed resistance and warned that a US attack would bring “irreparable damage.” Despite these threats, markets have yet to show panic, with oil and gold prices largely contained..... |
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8133; (P) 0.8153; (R1) 0.8184; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 0.8247 resistance will argue that corrective pattern from 0.8038 is starting the third leg. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.8475 resistance again. However, firm break of 0.8038 will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757 | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Current Account (NZD) Q1 | -2.32B | -2.19B | -7.04B | -6.80B | | 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance (JPY) May | -0.31T | -0.38T | -0.41T | -0.35T | | 23:50 | JPY | Machinery Orders M/M Apr | -9.10% | -9.60% | 13% | | 01:00 | AUD | Westpac Leading Index M/M May | -0.10% | -0.01% | | 06:00 | GBP | CPI M/M May | 0.20% | 0.20% | 1.20% | | 06:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y May | 3.40% | 3.30% | 3.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y May | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.80% | | 06:00 | GBP | RPI M/M May | 0.20% | 1.70% | | 06:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y May | 4.30% | 4.20% | 4.50% | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Apr | 19.8B | 40.4B | 50.9B | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y May F | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.90% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y May F | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 13) | 245K | 246K | 248K | 250K | | 12:30 | USD | Housing Starts May | 1.26M | 1.35M | 1.36M | 1.39M | | 12:30 | USD | Building Permits May | 1.39M | 1.42M | 1.42M | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -2.3M | -3.6M | | 16:00 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 96B | 109B | | 18:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.50% | 4.50% | | 18:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
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