Euro Ignores Hawkish ECB Comments, Markets Continue Consolidations

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-19-23

Euro Ignores Hawkish ECB Comments, Markets Continue Consolidations

The forex markets are holding steady in a consolidative pattern today. Notably, Euro has remained largely unaffected by continued hawkish messages emanating from top ECB officials, who have merely echoed President Christine Lagarde's suggestion that an interest rate hike is likely in July, while situation in September remains uncertain.

Euro is the third weakest in trading today so far, trailing behind Aussie and Kiwi. Both of these are consolidating alongside other risk markets. Sterling and Swiss Franc are showing mixed performance as markets await rate decisions from the BoE and SNB later in the week. Dollar and Yen, meanwhile, are demonstrating signs of a modest recovery, while Canadian Dollar edges slightly ahead.

From a technical standpoint, the conditions appear ripe for a EUR/CAD rebound, with bullish convergence condition evident in 4H MACD. The 1.4280 mark is perilously close to 1.4236 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2867 to 1.5111 at 1.4254). However, the current recovery momentum from 1.4280 is less than inspiring.

Should we witness a firm break above 1.4510 resistance, this would confirm short-term bottoming, leading to a stronger rise to 38.2% retracement of 1.5111 to 1.4280 at 1.4597 and above. Conversely, break below 1.4336 would suggest higher likelihood of an extended fall from 1.5111, pushing through 1.4236 cluster support.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.51%. DAX is down -0.77%. CAC is down -0.71%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0397 at 2.514. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.00%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.64%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.34%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.58%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.0090 to 0.395, below 0.4 handle.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0916; (P) 1.0944; (R1) 1.0969; More...

A temporary top is in place at 1.0969 with current retreat and intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 1.0803 support holds. On the upside, above 1.0969 will resume the rise from 1.0634 to retest 1.1094 high. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534. However, firm break of 1.0803 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.1094 with another falling leg, targeting 1.0634 and below.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ PSI May 53.3 49.8 50.1
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M May -1.00% 0.20% -0.20% -0.60%
12:30 CAD Raw Material Price Index M/M May -4.90% 2.40% 2.90% 1.80%
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 50 50