Sterling Weakens as BoE Gives No Hawkish Surprise, Dollar Softer on Job and Durables
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-24-21

Sterling Weakens as BoE Gives No Hawkish Surprise, Dollar Softer on Job and Durables

Sterling drops notably today after BoE delivered no hawkish surprise. While it sounded upbeat on the outlook, the MPC, except chief economist Andy Haldane, would prefer to wait until August to take any policy actions. Dollar is also soft after weaker than expected jobless claims and durable goods orders. On other other hand, New Zealand Dollar is currently the strongest, followed by Yen and than Euro. US futures are currently pointing to higher open and we'd see if markets would extend risk-on rally, and pressure Dollar and Yen again.

Technically, GBP/USD appears to be rejected by 4 hour 55 EMA, but that's more likely due to selling in Sterling that buying in Dollar. Eyes will be on 0.8600 resistance in EUR/GBP and break will suggest completion of the choppy decline form 0.8718. That could add to the case of more downside for the Pound. On the other hand, rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA in EUR/USD could argue that Dollar has completed a general corrective retreat.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.43%. DAX is up 0.68%. CAC is up 0.96%. Germany 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0051 at -0.178. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.00%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.23%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.01%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.03%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0015 at 0.054.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3924; (P) 1.3963; (R1) 1.4001; More....

GBP/USD drops notably after failing to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.3978), but stays above 1.3859 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.3859 will resume the fall from 1.4248, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.4240, to 1.3668 support and possibly below. On the upside, sustained break of the 4 hour 55 EMA will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4240/8 resistance zone instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y May 1.50% 1.40% 1.00% 1.10%
08:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate Jun 101.8 100.4 99.2
08:00 EUR Germany IFO Expectations Jun 104 103.5 102.9
08:00 EUR Germany IFO Current Assessment Jun 99.6 97.8 95.7
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
11:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility 895B 895B 895B
11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
11:00 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--1--8 0--0--9 0--0--9
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18) 411K 380K 412K 418K
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders May 2.30% 2.90% -1.30%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation May 0.30% 0.80% 1.00%
12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories May P 1.10% 0.90% 0.80%
12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) May P -88.1B -87.8B -85.2B -85.7B
12:30 USD GDP Annualized Q1 F 6.40% 6.40% 6.40%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 F 4.30% 4.30% 4.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 64B 16B