Dollar Dips as Headline and Core PCE Inflation Slowed

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-30-23

Dollar Dips as Headline and Core PCE Inflation Slowed

Dollar sees a significant dip in early US session after release of economic data showed a slower than expected headline PCE inflation and a slight decline in core PCE inflation. In contrast, Eurozone reported a tick up in core inflation for the same period. Stock futures rally on this news, while benchmark treasury yields dip Overall, the data, at least, doesn't lend support to more aggressive tightening by Fed.

As the month draws to a close, both Yen and Greenback are poised to end as the worst performers. Despite a slight hiccup in response to today's disappointing data, Canadian Dollar takes the crown as the strongest performer for the month, with Aussie Dollar taking the runner-up position, despite widespread selloffs this week. European majors are showing a mixed performance, with no clear winner among them.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.89%. DAX is up 1.25%. CAC is up 1.28%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.014 at 2.408. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.14%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.09%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.62%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.04%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0161 to 0.400.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0836; (P) 1.0888; (R1) 1.0917; More...

EUR/USD dipped to 1.0834 earlier today but quickly recovered. It's still trying to defend 55 D EMA. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.1011 will resume the rise from 1.0634 and target 1.1094 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534. However, firm break of 1.0834 will turn bias to the downside for 1.0634 support instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Jun 3.10% 3.80% 3.20%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y Jun 3.20% 3.30% 3.20%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food Energy Y/Y Jun 3.80% 4.40% 3.90%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate May 2.60% 2.60% 2.60%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M May P -1.60% -1.00% 0.70%
01:30 CNY Manufacturing PMI Jun 49 49.5 48.8
01:30 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI Jun 53.2 53.7 54.5
01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M May 0.40% 0.40% 0.60%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y May 3.50% -2.20% -11.90%
06:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M May -1.40% -2.00% -1.70%
06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M May 0.40% 0.20% 0.80%
06:00 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
06:00 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q1 -10.8B -7.7B -2.5B
06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y May -1.10% -2.50% -3.70% -4.00%
06:45 EUR France Consumer Spending M/M May 0.50% 0.70% -1.00% -0.80%
07:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer Jun 90.8 89.2 90.2 91.4
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change May 28K 15K 9K 13K
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate May 5.70% 5.60% 5.60%
08:00 EUR Italy Unemployment May 7.60% 7.90% 7.80%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate May 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%
09:00 EUR CPI Y/Y Jun P 5.50% 5.60% 6.10%
09:00 EUR CPI Core Y/Y Jun P 5.40% 5.40% 5.30%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Apr 0.00% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10%
12:30 USD Personal Income M/M May 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Spending May 0.10% 0.20% 0.80%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M May 0.10% 0.50% 0.40%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y May 3.80% 4.60% 4.40% 4.30%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M May 0.30% 0.40% 0.40%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y May 4.60% 4.70% 4.70%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jun 44.5 40.4
14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Jun F 63.9 63.9