Euro Soars as ECB Pre-Commits to Jul and Sep Rate Hikes
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-9-22

Euro Soars as ECB Pre-Commits to Jul and Sep Rate Hikes

Euro is attempting to rally after ECB surprisingly pre-commit to rate hikes in July and September. Germany 10-year yield also jumps to 1.45% in reaction. Commodity currencies turn slightly weaker on overall sluggish market sentiment. Dollar is mixed for now, and will need some fresh inspiration from tomorrow's CPI release. Meanwhile, Yen continues to digest recent losses, await next move.

Technically, EUR/AUD's break of 1.4965 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.5277 is over at 1.4759, and rebound from 1.4318 is in another rising leg to 1.5345 key resistance. EUR/CAD's breach of 1.3538 minor resistance also suggest short term bottoming at 1.3387, just ahead of 1.3383 low. Now, focus is on when EUR/USD will break through 1.0786 temporary top, and when EUR/GBP will break through 0.8617 resistance.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.82%. DAX is down -1.24%. CAC is down -1.05%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0842 at 1.440. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.04%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.66%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.76%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.50%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0024 to 0.250.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0676; (P) 1.0712 (R1) 1.0752; More...

EUR/USD rises notably today but stays in range below 1.0786 temporary top so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.0786 will resume the rebound from 1.0348. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.0745) and 1.0805 support turned resistance will carry larger bullish implication. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.1112 fibonacci resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0626 minor support will indicate rejection by 55 day EMA, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0348.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance May 73% 76% 80%
23:50 JPY Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y May 3.20% 3.60% 3.60% 3.40%
02:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) May 78.8B 59.0B 51.1B
02:00 CNY Exports (USD) Y/Y Apr 16.90% 8% 3.90%
02:00 CNY Imports (USD) Y/Y May 4.10% 2% 0.00%
02:00 CNY Trade Balance (CNY) May 502.9B 400B 325B
02:00 CNY Exports (CNY) Y/Y May 15.30% 13.10% 1.90%
02:00 CNY Imports (CNY) Y/Y May 2.80% -9% -2.00%
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y May P 23.70% 25.00%
11:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
11:45 EUR ECB Deposit Rate Decision -0.50% -0.50% -0.50%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 3) 229K 208K 200K 202K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 94B 90B